决策板 · 买点×估值×内部人×财报日 · 76家（2026-10-24）

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决策板 · 买点×估值×内部人×财报日 · 76家（2026-10-24）

本板性质：周更全刷版。76 家非 hidden 公司本周（10-24）全部强制刷新（last_updated 76 家均为 10-24，数据缺口闸 opc_gaps.py --check = 0 项），买区/地板/不追/Base PT/内部人/仓位均来自本周档案；买区按三闸（闸①新财报/重大8-K · 闸②>42天保鲜 · 闸③偏离复核）决定是否重锚，未触发即照抄。现价 ≤ 熊市地板、或距 R:R 所用地板 <5% 时，R:R 标 N/M 不参与排序；距地板 <10% 的在买区格里标 ⚠️「分母小、比值被放大」。口径：收益风险比 =（保守 Base PT−现价）÷（现价−熊市地板），<1.5 差 / 1.5–2.5 中 / >2.5 好；买区按收益风险比↓ 排。分层地板的公司用档案给的「诚实 R:R」（对深一层地板：OUST $18、STM $34.3、VRT $152.5、ONTO $155、RKLB $34.4）；01347 用地板中枢 HK$39.5。内部人 = 近 6 月（≥2026-04-24）参考列，不主导排序。题材档（🎰）名单沿用上周板规（ASTS/ARM/688017/NVTS/AEHR/RXRX/TSLA/PLTR）；本周复核没有新名单在不追线以下满足 fwd PE>100x / EV-S>50x / pre-rev（CRWD/DDOG/SNOW/SPCX 满足倍数条件，但现价已在不追线上方，归 ⛔）。现价：全部钉死 2026-10-23（周五）收盘——美股 Polygon grouped-daily（未复权）；港股/A 股东财不复权日 K（腾讯行情交叉一致）；6981.T stockanalysis。「周」列 = 对比 10-17 周更板（10-16 周五收盘），即完整一周 Fri→Fri。 近两周财报（✓=已官宣）：AMKR 10/26✓、HOOD/SOFI/SPGI 10/27✓、FORM/GOOGL/KLAC/MSFT/VRT 10/28✓、AMZN/INTC/MA/RDDT/SNDK/STM 10/29✓、6981 10/30✓、600900/688017/688521 10/31✓、AAPL/AEHR/PLTR 11/2✓、ALAB/AMD/NVTS/OUST/PFE 11/3✓、ARM/COHR/CRCL/DDOG/FICO/QCOM/VPG 11/4✓（RXRX 11/4 估）、01347/AAOI/LITE 11/5✓、VST 11/6✓。

📊 周环比（vs 10-17 周更板 · 10-16 收盘 → 10-23 收盘）

大盘背景：76 家中位 −2.6%，28 涨 48 跌，比上周（中位 −13.4%）缓和得多，但 10-22 又有一次 AI 基建链集体下杀。跌幅前列：CRDO −13.2%、CBRS −12.9%、LRCX −12.8%（财报后）、BE −12.7%（财报后）、KLAC −12.1%、VPG −11.8%、CRWV −11.7%、NOK −10.9%（财报后）、AAOI −10.7%、COHR/ALAB/01347/ONTO 约 −10%。涨幅前列：688017 +22.5%（无公司催化）、CRWD +13.3%、DDOG +9.1%、RXRX +6.9%、03952 +6.4%、SNOW +6.1%。大部分公司本周没有公司级新申报，下跌主要是板块估值收缩；有财报的是 BE/CME/LRCX/META/NOK/SPCX/TSLA/VICR。
档位变化：买区从 28 家增加到 34 家。新进买区 7 家：VST（$140.16，买区 $128-148，R:R 3.28，⭐ 黄金组合）、LRCX（财报后重锚，$230.10 略低于新下沿 $235）、KLAC（$145.61，财报 10-28 前）、LITE（$756.17）、RDDT（$144.25，财报 10-29 前）、FORM（$98.51）、CLSK（$7.88）。离开买区 1 家：SPGI（$450.31，高于买区上沿 $432，转公允偏上）。其他档位不变。
买区重锚——区间真的变了（7 家）：闸①——LRCX 买区 $225-260→$235-272、地板 $110-130→$118-132、不追 $395→$415（FY27 EPS 中值 9.0→9.4）；META 买区 $480-540→$470-530、地板 $415→$400、PT $650→$635（FY26 EPS 下调 + Class C 资本重组）；NOK 买区 $9.5-11→$8.2-9.8、地板 $8.5→$7.5（三闸全触发：Q3 后 EPS 锚 0.376→0.393，但 FCF 转换率下调，倍数下压）；CME 买区 $205-220→$210-225、地板 $190→$200；BE 买区 $130-185→$135-185、不追 $285→$275；SPCX 买区 $68-87→$74-94、地板 $29→$31、PT $112→$117；VICR 地板 $211→$215（只因营收基准，买区不变，现价 $176.04 已在地板下 18%）。闸②——VRT 买区 $255-281→$225-253（NTM 28-32x 重审，地板/PT 不变）。
重审后数值不变（6 家，只更新锚定日）：CRM（Braze $5.66B 收购 8-K）、NBIS（$3.5B Citi 过桥贷款 6-K）、TSLA（Q3）、NVDA / CRCL / GOOGL（闸② 保鲜）。闸③ 复核后维持 8 家：AAOI、AMAT、AMKR、ASTS、CRDO、CRWD、ONTO、PLTR——价格明显偏离买区，但没有找到 bear case 兑现的证据，买区没有跟着价格下移。
内部人变旗：转 🟢 3 家——AVGO（董事 Harry You 2026-06 公开市场买入 @ $373.57，上周按「中性」处理，本周按板规计 🟢，于是进黄金组合）、BABA（蔡崇信 08-24/25 买入约 $20.7M、CEO 吴泳铭 08-24 买入约 $5.0M）、OUST（董事 Boulet 05-12 小额买入）。转 🔴 5 家：AAOI、CBRS（COO/CFO 9 月清仓）、CRCL（CFO 10-21 卖 @$90）、LRCX（董事 Mayer 9 月裸卖）、NVDA（董事 Stevens 09-18 裸卖 136.6 万股 @$219.73）。600900 🟢→⚪（三峡增持 08-22 已完成，窗口内无新增）。1810 🟢→⚪ 是口径更正：之前计的是公司 FF305 回购，不是内部人公开市场买入。
财报窗口（T-10 内）：AMKR 10-26（现价已在地板下）、SOFI/HOOD/SPGI 10-27、KLAC/FORM/VRT/GOOGL/MSFT 10-28、RDDT/STM/INTC/AMZN/MA/SNDK 10-29、6981 10-30、长江电力/688017/芯原 10-31、AAPL/PLTR/AEHR 11-02。新进买区的 KLAC/FORM/RDDT 和买区内的 VRT/STM/INTC 都在这个窗口里，财报前只建首档。

⭐ 一眼结论

剔除分母伪影后真正有赔率的买区：AVGO（R:R 5.31，现价 $321.68 比买区下沿 $325 低 1%，距地板 $290 +10.9%，12-10 才发财报，择时最从容；⭐ 黄金组合）· ORCL（R:R 3.06，距地板 +20%，不是伪影；董事 9/29 在 $139.35 买入 $3.48M；⭐ 黄金组合）· VST（R:R 3.28，新进买区，CEO 8-9 月在 ~$135 买入；但现价距地板 $128 只有 +9.5%，恐慌底 $117 口径 1.72；11-06 财报）· AMAT（R:R 4.80，PT 是 36 家共识均值，距地板 +16%）· VRT（诚实口径 3.84，闸②把买区下调到 $225-253 后现价仍低于下沿；10-28 财报前只建首档）。
榜首几只是分母伪影：NOK 10.7（重锚后现价 $8.14 距新地板 $7.5 只有 +8.5%，PT 还是财报前的共识）、CBRS 7.54（距地板 +11.9%，买区中点口径 1.81，且 COO/CFO 已清仓）、CRWV 4.97（信用风险未核实，地板前提正被债市检验）、03952 3.67（档案自己标了伪影）、AAOI 3.59（PT=区上沿）。这些在表里照排，但不能当加仓依据。
跌破地板 / 地板带内（R:R N/M）：VICR（$176.04，比地板 $215 低 18%；Q3 beat 但 Q4 基线低于 Q3）、AMKR（$39.30，比地板 $42 低 6%，10-26 财报是证伪点）、ONTO（$198.68，比一级地板 $205 低 3%，按二级地板 $155 计 R:R 4.4）、STM（$44.02，贴地板 $44，诚实口径 2.26）。按纪律：财报证伪就下调地板，不摊平。
因子集中：买区 34 家里 AI 基建 / 半导体链仍占大半（AVGO/AMAT/VRT/CRWV/ONTO/CRDO/MRVL/COHR/KLAC/LRCX/LITE/FORM/SNPS/STM/AAOI/CBRS/VICR/AMKR/SKHY），10-22 又是一起跌的。加仓时把它们当一个因子控制总量；ORCL、VST、腾讯、华虹、金山云可以用来分散。
题材档：688017 本周 +22.5%，离不追 ¥300 只差 3.4%，10-31 三季报前不追；ASTS 维持破 L1 $42 不接；RXRX/NVTS/AEHR 仍高于买区。

⭐ 黄金组合（买区内 + 近6月内部人开放市场买入 + 收益风险比>2.5 · 罕见正面确认）

Ticker	收益风险比	现价	买区	地板	不追	仓位
NOK	10.7	$8.14 周-10.9%	买区$8.2-9.8 🔁本周重锚 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 距熊市地板<10%,R:R分母小、比值被放大	熊市地板$7.5(~19x guided EPS; also thesis-invalidation price)	不追>$16	starter 1/3 maintained; no add until Q4 FCF/orders seen
主锚 Forward PE x FY26E comparable EPS $0.393 (21-25x); 2nd: PE band + consensus PT 估值 PE N/M (GAAP TTM distorted by restructuring) · FPE ~20.7x guided EPS $0.393 (~21.1x consensus €0.343 pre-Q3) · PEG年 ~1.0 (FY26 EPS +~21%) 分位 52w close 21.2%; no clean 5y band (pre-AI 10-15x vs post 30-47x) R:R口径 (14.97-8.14)/(8.14-7.5) = ~10.7:1; denominator only $0.64 (near-zero artifact); PT is pre-Q3 stale mean (median $15, 12 analysts); not a basis for adding. @8.2=9.7, @9=3.98, @9.8=2.25.（Base PT $14.97）重锚 All 3 gates triggered (Q3 6-K, 49d age, price below floor 8.5). EPS anchor 0.376 to 0.393; zone 9.5-11 to 8.2-9.8; floor 8.5 to 7.5; no-chase 16 unchanged. 内部人 🟢 Open-market buy cluster 2026-07-24 (Mahajan $9.55 etc.) + 07-29 (Pressner/Hautala ~$8.93): 5 people ~$2.24M; CEO/Chair April cost $10.49-10.55. No new buys/sells 10-17 to 10-23; all clusters now underwater. 事件财报 10/22→1/28估 · 催化 Q4/FY26 earnings 2027-01-28; FCF and AI&Cloud orders; dividend 11-05 X Post-Q3: AI&Cloud +123% and O+IP 2027 +25-30% vs FCF -€99M, lower conversion, orders €2.8B to €1.5B; JPM may raise 2027 guide (X-derived); no downgrades found. 提示 Price $8.14 is just below the new buy zone floor ($8.2) and 8.5% above the $7.5 floor, after a 12% two-day fall post-Q3. The bear case (flat EPS, guidance cut) did not happen; the drop comes from weaker cash quality. Watch FCF, orders and the stale PT. The 10.7:1 R:R is an artifact, so do not add.
AVGO	5.31	$321.68 周-2.2%	买区$325-348 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$290	不追>$481	half (1/2) 维持; 现价在买区下沿附近, 按纪律在 $325-290 区间分批
主锚 Forward PE × FY26 NG EPS (盈利复利/宽护城河) 估值 PE GAAP TTM 41.1x / NG TTM 33.0x · FPE 27.7x FY26 NG $11.6 (FY27 保守 $16.5: 19.5x) · PEG年 0.40 分位 52w 区间 16% 分位 (28-42x 前瞻 band 下段) R:R口径 (490−321.68)/(321.68−290) = 168.32/31.68 ≈ 5.31:1 (上轮 4.16:1); base PT $490; 现价略低于买区下沿 $325 (−1.0%), 距地板 +10.9%（Base PT $490）内部人 🟢 窗口内买入: 2026-06-15 Director Harry You 公开市场买 1,000 股 @ $373.57 (现价低于该价 13.9%)。卖出: Samueli 10b5-1 (09-23, 702,190 股 @ $356.04); Brazeal 7/14 后停手。10-17 起零新申报事件财报 9/2→12/10估 · 催化 FY26 Q4 财报 2026-12-10 盘后 (未确认); Q4 指引 $34.8B / AI $21.7B 兑现度 X file06 磁盘上无 10-24 节 (最新为 10-03); 据 00: 无新基本面事件; CDS 隐含违约概率约 12% (X 转述未核); BofA PT $530 (30x CY27E); Wi-Fi 路由器漏洞无关提示现价 321.68 略低于买区下沿 325 (−1.0%), 距地板 290 +10.9%, 远低于不追线 481。三闸均未触发, 锚仍为 2026-10-17。风险: 客户信用/循环融资 (CDS 走阔)、Google/MRVL 份额、中国 SASAC 审查。跌破 290 且 AI 环比走平 = 论点证伪。
VST	3.28	$140.16 周-7.8%	买区$128-148 🟢买区内 ⚠️ 距熊市地板<10%,R:R分母小、比值被放大	熊市地板$128(真 bear/恐慌底 $117 (R:R 1.72:1))	不追>$200	half (1/2), 4/6; 已建仓可在$128-140分批小幅加至half上限, 未建仓可开始分批
主锚 P/FCFbG x 2026E FCFbG/股 (IPP); 2nd: EV/EBITDA + NetDebt/EBITDA 估值 PE N/M (GAAP失真) · FPE P/FCFbG 10.89x; EV/2026E EBITDA 9.55x · PEG年 N/M (EBITDA口径 ~0.5, 台阶式增长假性偏低) 分位 P/FCFbG 带[10x-16.7x]第~11分位 R:R口径 (180-140.16)/(140.16-128)=3.28:1; 恐慌底$117口径1.72:1; 均过1.5建仓门槛; 现价距地板9.5%（Base PT $180）内部人 🟢 CEO Burke 公开市场买入(P) 2026-08-24 2,000股@$135.00; 08-31/09-01 6,665股@~$135.5; 合计$1.17M 均价$135.40。CFO Moldovan 10-07 20,000股@$165、EVP Hudson 10-06 22,222股@$160.14 为10b5-1卖出。事件财报 8/7→11/6✓ · 催化 Q3财报 2026-11-06盘前; DOE $4.2B融资条款/Cogentrix交割 X 10-22单日-9.8%无公司特定解释, 属AI电力/基础设施板块性抛售($BE -10.7%); 抄底情绪多为荐股号; DOE融资仍为转述无新条款; 不改锚。提示现价$140.16回到买区内(低于上沿5.3%, 高于地板9.5%), 远低于不追$200。10-22单日-9.8%为板块性抛售无公司公告。风险: 优先股赎回后杠杆升至~2.9x(逼近3x目标), 11-06 Q3财报与DOE融资条款待验证。买区锚定2026-09-26未重推。
ORCL	3.06	$126.16 周-1.6%	买区$130-146 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$105(15x x bear EPS $7.0; 52w close low $114.58 is soft support)	不追>$243	starter (1/3), score 4
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS $8.10 (2nd: EV/EBITDA, EV/S) 估值 PE 19.77x TTM GAAP · FPE 15.58x (guide $8.10) · PEG年 0.91 (9/25 price; not restated 10/24) 分位 FPE ~9th pct of 5yr band 13-43x; 52w ~7.0 pct R:R口径 (191-126.16)/(126.16-105)=64.84/21.16=3.06:1 (prev wk 2.70). PT 23.6x x $8.10; price is 20.2% above floor, no denominator-collapse artifact.（Base PT $191）内部人 🟢 2026-09-29 (filed 10-01) director Rusckowski open-market BUY 25,000 sh @ $139.35 ($3.48M, non-10b5-1); now -9.5% underwater. 10-19 Form 4 x9 = annual grants only. Sicilia/Smith 9/22 sales @ ~$151.6 (10b5-1). 事件财报 9/10→12/9估 · 催化 Annual meeting 11/18; Q2 FY27 earnings est 12/09 X CDS ~300bps and ~23% implied default prob (zerohedge etc, hearsay); WSJ: Ellison pledges shares to 5 banks after cancelling sale plan; bulls cite ~15x FPE; no new fundamentals. 提示 Price $126.16 is 3.0% below buy zone low $130 and 20.2% above floor $105. Starter-size entry is executable. Credit risk is the main worry: CDS ~300bps (hearsay), Project Jupiter force majeure, Ellison pledging 413M shares. Gate 2 forces a re-anchor on 10-31. Watch the 12/09 earnings date, capex and FCF.

🟢 买区（深度 + 买区内 · 34家 · 按收益风险比↓ 排 · N/M=现价贴近/跌破地板）

Ticker	收益风险比	现价	买区	地板	不追	仓位
NOK	10.7	$8.14 周-10.9%	买区$8.2-9.8 🔁本周重锚 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 距熊市地板<10%,R:R分母小、比值被放大	熊市地板$7.5(~19x guided EPS; also thesis-invalidation price)	不追>$16	starter 1/3 maintained; no add until Q4 FCF/orders seen
主锚 Forward PE x FY26E comparable EPS $0.393 (21-25x); 2nd: PE band + consensus PT 估值 PE N/M (GAAP TTM distorted by restructuring) · FPE ~20.7x guided EPS $0.393 (~21.1x consensus €0.343 pre-Q3) · PEG年 ~1.0 (FY26 EPS +~21%) 分位 52w close 21.2%; no clean 5y band (pre-AI 10-15x vs post 30-47x) R:R口径 (14.97-8.14)/(8.14-7.5) = ~10.7:1; denominator only $0.64 (near-zero artifact); PT is pre-Q3 stale mean (median $15, 12 analysts); not a basis for adding. @8.2=9.7, @9=3.98, @9.8=2.25.（Base PT $14.97）重锚 All 3 gates triggered (Q3 6-K, 49d age, price below floor 8.5). EPS anchor 0.376 to 0.393; zone 9.5-11 to 8.2-9.8; floor 8.5 to 7.5; no-chase 16 unchanged. 内部人 🟢 Open-market buy cluster 2026-07-24 (Mahajan $9.55 etc.) + 07-29 (Pressner/Hautala ~$8.93): 5 people ~$2.24M; CEO/Chair April cost $10.49-10.55. No new buys/sells 10-17 to 10-23; all clusters now underwater. 事件财报 10/22→1/28估 · 催化 Q4/FY26 earnings 2027-01-28; FCF and AI&Cloud orders; dividend 11-05 X Post-Q3: AI&Cloud +123% and O+IP 2027 +25-30% vs FCF -€99M, lower conversion, orders €2.8B to €1.5B; JPM may raise 2027 guide (X-derived); no downgrades found. 提示 Price $8.14 is just below the new buy zone floor ($8.2) and 8.5% above the $7.5 floor, after a 12% two-day fall post-Q3. The bear case (flat EPS, guidance cut) did not happen; the drop comes from weaker cash quality. Watch FCF, orders and the stale PT. The 10.7:1 R:R is an artifact, so do not add.
CBRS	7.54	$110.82 周-12.9%	买区$125-144 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$99(18x EV/营收；崩溃底=净现金约 $32.4/股)	不追>$275	half 1/2 档（主分 3.5）；分两笔：现在约 1/4，11-12 财报后或 $99-110 补到 half
主锚 EV/前瞻营收 P/S band（超高增长前营收硬科技），第二法 PT 区+净现金底估值 PE N/M · FPE FY27 FPE 87.3x（EPS $1.27，仅参考）；EV/FY26 营收 21.1x；EV/FY27 共识营收 6.3x · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w close 分位 0.9%；无自身历史 band（上市5个月） R:R口径 (200−110.82)÷(110.82−99)=7.54:1；Base PT $200 来自档案；买区中点 $135 的 R:R 为 1.81:1。现价低于买区下沿，R:R 受近地板分母放大。（Base PT $200）内部人 🔴 09-29 COO Mallick 卖 396,000 股（约 $80.8M，$194.91-212.93，持股清零）；09-29 CFO Komin 卖 32,500 股（约 $6.6M，清零）；09-25 CTO Lie 卖 120,000 股（加权 $208.97）。10-07 后零新申报。事件财报 8/12→11/12✓ · 催化 10-28 解禁 19.4M 股；11-09 剩余解禁；11-12 Q3 财报 X 10-22 @cerebras 发 AWS 渠道帖；OpenAI 转 NVIDIA 与解禁传闻仍为二手；10-23 盘中新低 $106.13；多空分化，无一手 SEC 证据，不改论点。提示现价 $110.82 低于买区下沿 $125（−11.3%），高于地板 $99（+11.9%），距闸③线 $106.25 仅约 4%。三闸未触发，锚仍为 2026-09-26。风险：10-28 与 11-09 两档解禁、11-12 财报，OpenAI 转 NVIDIA 仍无一手文件。内部人 🔴：COO/CFO 已清仓，卖价均比现价高 43-48%。
AVGO	5.31	$321.68 周-2.2%	买区$325-348 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$290	不追>$481	half (1/2) 维持; 现价在买区下沿附近, 按纪律在 $325-290 区间分批
主锚 Forward PE × FY26 NG EPS (盈利复利/宽护城河) 估值 PE GAAP TTM 41.1x / NG TTM 33.0x · FPE 27.7x FY26 NG $11.6 (FY27 保守 $16.5: 19.5x) · PEG年 0.40 分位 52w 区间 16% 分位 (28-42x 前瞻 band 下段) R:R口径 (490−321.68)/(321.68−290) = 168.32/31.68 ≈ 5.31:1 (上轮 4.16:1); base PT $490; 现价略低于买区下沿 $325 (−1.0%), 距地板 +10.9%（Base PT $490）内部人 🟢 窗口内买入: 2026-06-15 Director Harry You 公开市场买 1,000 股 @ $373.57 (现价低于该价 13.9%)。卖出: Samueli 10b5-1 (09-23, 702,190 股 @ $356.04); Brazeal 7/14 后停手。10-17 起零新申报事件财报 9/2→12/10估 · 催化 FY26 Q4 财报 2026-12-10 盘后 (未确认); Q4 指引 $34.8B / AI $21.7B 兑现度 X file06 磁盘上无 10-24 节 (最新为 10-03); 据 00: 无新基本面事件; CDS 隐含违约概率约 12% (X 转述未核); BofA PT $530 (30x CY27E); Wi-Fi 路由器漏洞无关提示现价 321.68 略低于买区下沿 325 (−1.0%), 距地板 290 +10.9%, 远低于不追线 481。三闸均未触发, 锚仍为 2026-10-17。风险: 客户信用/循环融资 (CDS 走阔)、Google/MRVL 份额、中国 SASAC 审查。跌破 290 且 AI 环比走平 = 论点证伪。
CRWV	4.97	$54.23 周-11.7%	买区$62-74 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$42	不追>$145	观望；价格低于买区，仅区内 starter(1/3) 上限，信用风险未核实前须谨慎
主锚 EV/前瞻营收 band + 情景桥；第二法 EV/backlog + 债务调整权益桥估值 PE N/M (EPS 为负, TTM GAAP EPS -3.15) · FPE EV/FY26E-S 4.63x (街道 $12.54B) / 5.28x (保守 $11.0B) · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w 0.3% 分位 ($54.01–$141.72)；无5年band，peer 5–10x R:R口径 (115 − 54.235)/(54.235 − 42) = 60.765/12.235 = 4.97:1。Base $115/地板 $42。文件警示：价格下跌+信用风险同时抬升，地板前提（再融资可得）正被 CDS/债券市场检验，现价距地板仅 −22.6%。（Base PT $115）内部人 🟡 无买入，零买入第20周。最近卖出 10-12/13：CFO Agrawal @$79.95–80.51、CRO Jones @$77.18–80.37；Intrator 9/29 卖 @$86.65 (10b5-1)。均远高于现价，本周仅董事授予 RSU。事件财报 8/11→11/9估 · 催化财报 2026-11-09(估)；ATM/可转债执行；债券/评级 X 单源未核：CDS 创纪录~1,194.5bp、HSBC看空、Gerstner称清仓$650M、$17.05M $85 Mar-27 call扫单、新云板块被砸（SpaceX算力竞争叙事）。提示现价 $54.235 贴 52w 新低，低于买区下沿 $62 达 -12.5%，高于地板 $42 仅 22.6%。锚定 2026-09-19，本轮未重锚；下轮 10-31 起锚龄超 42 天须强制重审。R:R 4.97 是价格下跌加信用风险抬升的结果，先核债券价格和评级再决定 starter。财报日期未官宣（Zacks 估 11-09，Finnhub 估 11-16）。
AMAT	4.8	$377.24 周-7.8%	买区$450-536 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$325(deeper full-cycle crash (mid-cycle EV/EBITDA line) $166-244)	不追>$655	可分批建仓 (half, 1/2) per 00 TL;DR (score 4, text from older round)
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS_mid $17.3 (structural re-rating band 26-31x); 2nd line EV/EBITDA mid-cycle 估值 PE 32.58x GAAP TTM (NG 34.58x) · FPE FY26 29.56x / FY27 21.81x (@EPS_mid $17.3) · PEG年 0.83 (FY26) / 0.61 (FY27) 分位 FPE 21.81x = 1.28x of 12-22x band midpoint ~17x; 52w close pos 31.2% R:R口径 (627.83-377.24)/(377.24-325)=250.59/52.24 ≈ 4.80:1; PT = consensus mean (36 targets, median 607.5, low 358, high 900). Only ~13.8% downside to floor; R:R invalid if $325 breaks. R:R>=1.5 at price <=443.9.（Base PT $627.83）内部人 🟡 No buys in window; no new Form 4 since 10-05 filing. Sold far above current: Sanders 10-02 $544.56, Raja 6/5 $504.66, Hill 8/25 $479.25, Bruner 9/8 $465, CEO 7/1 $700.21. Price now below all. 事件财报 8/13→11/12✓ · 催化 FQ4 earnings 2026-11-12 (guide $10.25B/EPS $4.02); ex-div 11-19 X Bearish/oversold chatter after near -50% from ATH; Cantor PT $850 OW; gaps $356/$306/$260 flagged; Terafab pricing pressure rumor (unconfirmed); no structural negative facts. 提示 Price $377.24 is 16.2% below buy zone low $450 and 16.1% above floor $325. Fell 7.83% on the week and is about 49% off ATH $739.67. Cause is multiple compression, with no new filings or guidance change. R:R 4.80 looks high only because the floor is close. A break below $325 means checking whether the bear case has played out. Watch the 11-12 FQ4 print against guidance.
ONTO	4.4	$198.68 周-10.0%	买区$225-247 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价已跌破/位于熊市地板带,R:R分母为负或趋零(N/M)	熊市地板$205(现价已破 $205；二级深周期地板 $155)	不追>$385	half 1/2（4分）；首笔不超目标档 1/3
主锚 Forward PE × FY26 NG EPS (semicap cyclical-growth); 2nd: EV/Sales 估值 PE 静态NG 35.9x; GAAP 74.7x(失真) · FPE FPE 24.74x (FY26 NG $8.03); NTM 19.7x · PEG年 — 分位 52w 29.3% (区间 124.19–378.49) R:R口径文件按二级地板 $155 计：(390-198.68)/(198.68-155)=4.4:1；以 $205 地板计分母为负，不适用。PT 为共识中值 $390。（Base PT $390）内部人 🟡 无公开市场买入。09-29 Director Miller 卖 2,000股 @ $300；08-21 Lynch 10b5-1 卖 1,000股 @ $302.30；09-02 Roberts/Chen 代扣税 @ $254.55。均高于现价；10-24 无新增。事件财报 8/6→11/9✓ · 催化 11-09 Q3财报(backlog/指引); PTI追加订单 X 无ONTO特异性利空；10-22单日-10.5%判为板块联动($ASML/$TER同图形)；PTI追加订购NT$7.39亿；Cantor PT $410(转引)；cashtag多垃圾帖。提示现价 198.68 低于买区下沿 225 约 11.7%，也低于地板 205 约 3.1%，闸③触发复核后买区未改。周环比 -10.0%，其中 10-22 单日 -10.5%，没找到公司特有利空，判断为板块联动。R:R 4.4:1 按二级地板 155 计，不是按 205。11-09 的 Q3 财报是验证点，日期未确认。若指引下修，要重新定锚。风险：客户集中度 57%，e-beam 技术路线质疑。
VRT	3.84	$194.32 周-5.9%	买区$225-253 🔁本周重锚 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$183(L2 floor 152.5 (Bear EPS 6.10 x 25x), ~2025-12-17 low 149.73)	不追>$369	half (1/2) tier unchanged; empty-handed may start first tranche (≤1/4), no add to half before Q3 (10/28); trim if below $183 with no fundamental reason
主锚 NTM forward-PE band (28–32x NTM EPS $7.92) 估值 PE 43.97x (TTM GAAP) · FPE FY26 NG 29.00x / FY27 21.14x / NTM ~24.5x · PEG年 0.49 (FY26 +59.5%, reference only) 分位 band [18x–60x] ~26th pct (linear est.); 52w ~19.7th pct R:R口径 File: (355-194.32)/(194.32-183)=14.19:1 is a denominator artifact (price only +6.2% above floor), not usable. Conservative L2 floor 152.5: 160.68/41.82 = 3.84:1, used as the basis. Buy-zone edges vs 183 floor: 225 → 3.10, 239 → 2.07, 253 → 1.46.（Base PT $355）重锚 Gate 2 (anchor age 49d>42): buy zone $255–281 → $225–253 (28–32x NTM); floor $183, no-chase $369, PT $355 unchanged 内部人 🟡 No open-market buys (P) in window. 2026-09-01 Monser 10b5-1 exercise-and-sell @ $253.82 (price now −23.4% below); 10/5-10/6 Resha onboarding grant (Code A) @ $253.62. No new filings since 10/6. 12-week open window with no insider buys. 事件财报 7/29→10/28✓ · 催化 Q3 earnings 2026-10-28 pre-market; NVIDIA DSX/Rubin; UIG/KES closing X NVIDIA x Vertiv GTC Berlin DSX deployment (120→48 days) is the positive story; 10/22 −7.8% drop has no company-specific cause on X (oversold RSI, bear-flag posts); options imply ±11.8% for Q3. 提示 Price $194.32 is 13.6% below the new buy-zone low ($225) and only 6.2% above the $183 floor. The 14.19:1 R:R is an artifact, so use 3.84:1 (L2 floor). Q3 earnings are 10/28 (3 trading days away, ±11.8% implied). Consensus EPS is unchanged; the drawdown looks like multiple compression. Watch the $183 break and any first insider open-market buy after Q3.
03952	3.67	HK$31.14 周+6.4%	买区HK$32-38 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板HK$26	不追>HK$62	starter (1/3)，仅在HK$32-38买区内启动；现价=观察不建仓（主分3/6）
主锚 EV/Forward Sales 主锚 + 前瞻P/B + 每股净现金硬底估值 PE N/M · FPE EV/S TTM 6.08x / FY26E 5.63x / FY27E 4.38x；P/B 2.12x · PEG年 N/M 分位无自身历史band；52周分位5.3% R:R口径 (50-31.14)/(31.14-26)=3.67:1，文件标注分母趋零伪影(距地板仅5.14)，不可当性价比信号；买区内@35 R:R=1.67:1。Base PT 50（EV/S线54.4与P/B线44.8折中）。（Base PT HK$50）内部人 ⚪ 2026-10-17~10-24 HKEX 0条公告，无DI/FF305/董事买卖/回购。全体股东锁定至2026-12-29(基石)/2027-06-29(86.38%)，零买卖为无信号。事件财报 8/28→3/31估 · 催化 2026-12-29基石解禁4.90%；FY2026年报(2027-03/04) X X 2个query：中文名0条，英文名1条仅为IPO招股期旧闻转发；价格波动无X可见催化，不改买区/地板；高盛纪要三点仍待年报核实。提示现价31.14略低于买区下沿32(-2.7%)，距地板26仅+19.8%（盘中低26.20未破）；R:R 3.67为分母趋零伪影。亏损次新股，浮筹8.78%，2026-12-29基石解禁、2027-06-29解禁86.38%为最大风险。锚定2026-09-19未变，不追>62。
AAOI	3.59	$67.51 周-10.7%	买区$88-116 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$54	不追>$166	可分批小仓承接，不重仓；主力仓位等 11/5 Q3 兑现；跌破 $54 且 ramp 未改善即证伪
主锚 EV/Sales 主锚（pre-profit→初盈利光模块 capex-beta），PE 副锚估值 PE N/M（GAAP 亏损，TTM NI -$57.0M） · FPE EV/S FY26E ~5.6-6.0x；NG run-rate PE ~25.2x（$2.68） · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w 分位 23.6%；距 ATH -71.1% R:R口径 (116-67.51)/(67.51-54)=48.49/13.51≈3.59:1，PT=买区上沿 $116；文件注明分母收窄放大比值，非基本面改善。牛市 PT $350 = 20.9:1。（Base PT $116）内部人 🔴 10/12 CFO Murry 10b5-1 卖 4,000 股 @$102.87（10/14 申报）；9/8 SVP Chang 裸卖 32,172 股 @$110.21。10/17-10/24 无新增 Form 4/144，无内部人买入。文件维持 🔴 但权重压低。事件财报 8/6→11/5✓ · 催化 11/5 Q3 财报；800G 产能爬坡（目标 65 万只/月） X 无 AAOI 自身新披露；10/22 板块同步杀跌（AAOI -12%，COHR/LITE/CIEN -11~-13%）。多头引「2027 年中 $471M/月」（转述未核实），空头看月线破 EMA21 $73；均为情绪/技术面。提示现价 $67.51 低于买区下沿 23.3%，高于地板 $54 仅 25.0%。闸③已触发，但这是板块 de-rating，AAOI 无自身新证据，所以锚没变。R:R 3.59:1 是分母收窄造成的。Q3 指引 $255-290M，11/5 才验证。bear 线：Q3 营收低于 $255M、NG 毛利率低于 29%、破 $54。风险：ATM 稀释、客户集中超过 70%、内部人持续卖出。
VST	3.28	$140.16 周-7.8%	买区$128-148 🟢买区内 ⚠️ 距熊市地板<10%,R:R分母小、比值被放大	熊市地板$128(真 bear/恐慌底 $117 (R:R 1.72:1))	不追>$200	half (1/2), 4/6; 已建仓可在$128-140分批小幅加至half上限, 未建仓可开始分批
主锚 P/FCFbG x 2026E FCFbG/股 (IPP); 2nd: EV/EBITDA + NetDebt/EBITDA 估值 PE N/M (GAAP失真) · FPE P/FCFbG 10.89x; EV/2026E EBITDA 9.55x · PEG年 N/M (EBITDA口径 ~0.5, 台阶式增长假性偏低) 分位 P/FCFbG 带[10x-16.7x]第~11分位 R:R口径 (180-140.16)/(140.16-128)=3.28:1; 恐慌底$117口径1.72:1; 均过1.5建仓门槛; 现价距地板9.5%（Base PT $180）内部人 🟢 CEO Burke 公开市场买入(P) 2026-08-24 2,000股@$135.00; 08-31/09-01 6,665股@~$135.5; 合计$1.17M 均价$135.40。CFO Moldovan 10-07 20,000股@$165、EVP Hudson 10-06 22,222股@$160.14 为10b5-1卖出。事件财报 8/7→11/6✓ · 催化 Q3财报 2026-11-06盘前; DOE $4.2B融资条款/Cogentrix交割 X 10-22单日-9.8%无公司特定解释, 属AI电力/基础设施板块性抛售($BE -10.7%); 抄底情绪多为荐股号; DOE融资仍为转述无新条款; 不改锚。提示现价$140.16回到买区内(低于上沿5.3%, 高于地板9.5%), 远低于不追$200。10-22单日-9.8%为板块性抛售无公司公告。风险: 优先股赎回后杠杆升至~2.9x(逼近3x目标), 11-06 Q3财报与DOE融资条款待验证。买区锚定2026-09-26未重推。
03896	3.13	HK$4.46 周-3.0%	买区HK$4-4.7 🟢买区内	熊市地板HK$3.2	不追>HK$11.4	starter (1/3)
主锚 EV/调整后EBITDA×FY2027E(减YE2026净债务);第二法EV/Sales;P/B校验估值 PE N/M (亏损) · FPE EV/EBITDA 6.7x TTM / 5.3x FY26E; EV/S 2.14x/1.86x; P/B 1.94x · PEG年 N/M 分位 52周分位5.4%;EV/S 2.28x≈AI拐点后band最低(p10内) R:R口径 (8.40-4.46)/(4.46-3.20)=3.94/1.26=3.13:1;区内R:R 3.52:1;Base PT 8.40、地板3.20为2026-09-18锚定照抄（Base PT HK$8.4）内部人 🟡 窗口内无新Form 3/4/144。2026-07-17代理CEO邹涛卖30万股(≈US$9.61/ADS,Code S,15%持仓);2026-08-21董事Form 144卖3万ADS@US$11.42。六年零买入;ADR 8.485低于卖价。事件财报 8/19→11/20估 · 催化 Q3业绩2026-11-20(预计);FY26业绩+FY27 capex指引2027-03 X 窗口(10-16起)内新增推文0条,无人讨论,无评级/目标价/小米订单新帖;S&P共识PT均值11.84,Strong Buy 6/Buy 2(n=8)。提示现价4.46在买区4.00-4.70内(距上沿-5.1%),52周分位5.4%,10-23盘中4.16破52w-lo后收回。地板3.20,不追>11.40。风险:折旧墙、杠杆(净债务YE26E ¥132亿)、小米客户集中、商誉。闸②将于10-31达43天强制重审买区;盯Q3业绩毛利率是否守15%。
ORCL	3.06	$126.16 周-1.6%	买区$130-146 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$105(15x x bear EPS $7.0; 52w close low $114.58 is soft support)	不追>$243	starter (1/3), score 4
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS $8.10 (2nd: EV/EBITDA, EV/S) 估值 PE 19.77x TTM GAAP · FPE 15.58x (guide $8.10) · PEG年 0.91 (9/25 price; not restated 10/24) 分位 FPE ~9th pct of 5yr band 13-43x; 52w ~7.0 pct R:R口径 (191-126.16)/(126.16-105)=64.84/21.16=3.06:1 (prev wk 2.70). PT 23.6x x $8.10; price is 20.2% above floor, no denominator-collapse artifact.（Base PT $191）内部人 🟢 2026-09-29 (filed 10-01) director Rusckowski open-market BUY 25,000 sh @ $139.35 ($3.48M, non-10b5-1); now -9.5% underwater. 10-19 Form 4 x9 = annual grants only. Sicilia/Smith 9/22 sales @ ~$151.6 (10b5-1). 事件财报 9/10→12/9估 · 催化 Annual meeting 11/18; Q2 FY27 earnings est 12/09 X CDS ~300bps and ~23% implied default prob (zerohedge etc, hearsay); WSJ: Ellison pledges shares to 5 banks after cancelling sale plan; bulls cite ~15x FPE; no new fundamentals. 提示 Price $126.16 is 3.0% below buy zone low $130 and 20.2% above floor $105. Starter-size entry is executable. Credit risk is the main worry: CDS ~300bps (hearsay), Project Jupiter force majeure, Ellison pledging 413M shares. Gate 2 forces a re-anchor on 10-31. Watch the 12/09 earnings date, capex and FCF.
RKLB	2.8	$52.6 周+3.5%	买区$57.5-72.7 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$34.4-41.4(L1 $41.4 (25x x bear $934M) / L2 $34.4 (20x band extreme tail))	不追>$116	starter (1/3); before earnings only half a starter; pause if close below $49.69
主锚 EV/Forward-Sales band (FY26 base $975M) 估值 PE N/M (loss-making) · FPE EV/S FY26 base ~31.6x (TTM ~40.1x); PE N/M · PEG年 N/M 分位 EV/S band [20x-99x] ~15th pct; 52w ~11.8th pct R:R口径 Honest R:R vs L2 = (103-52.6)/(52.6-34.4) = 50.4/18.2 ≈ 2.8; point R:R vs L1 $41.4 = 50.4/11.2 ≈ 4.5. Base PT $103 = lower end of take-profit band $103-116. Price near L1 so point R:R is inflated; use 2.8.（Base PT $103）内部人 🟡 No new Form 3/4/144 since 10-02; no open-market buys in window. Last: CFO Spice 10b5-1 sale 10-01 140,157 sh @ ~$70.82; CEO Beck 10b5-1 7/6-7/8 @ ~$87. All 2026 sales above current $52.60. 事件财报 8/10→11/9✓ · 催化 Q3 earnings 2026-11-09; Neutron new first-launch timing; Iridium FCC approval X Neutron dome/Stage 2 tank/interstage milestones, Electron 98th launch 10-23; retail shifts from panic to waiting for earnings; technicals oversold (RSI 25), bottom unconfirmed; no new company facts. 提示 Price $52.60 is 8.5% below the buy-zone floor $57.5 and 7.6% above gate-3 line $48.9 (a close below it forces re-anchor). Neutron delayed to 2027 (10-14 8-K). Honest R:R 2.8 but sizing capped at starter by conviction 3. Watch the 11-09 Q3 report for the Neutron timeline and FY27 guidance, and the 10-15 low of $49.69.
01347	2.74	HK$67.45 周-10.0%	买区HK$58-91 🟢买区内	熊市地板HK$33-46(地板中枢39.5（R:R分母用）)	不追>HK$140	starter(1/3)档，但Q3(11-05)前上限为starter的一半(≈1/6)
主锚 PB × mid-cycle ROE（自身PB历史band分位）；第二法EV/EBITDA 估值 PE TTM PE 279x（失真，弃用） · FPE FY26E 71.7x / FY27E 47.2x（PE路线弃用；归母PB 2.22x） · PEG年 N/M 分位 H股归母PB约60分位(3年)；A股PB 6.75x≈第86百分位 R:R口径 (143.99 − 67.45) ÷ (67.45 − 39.5) = 2.74:1；PT=卖方均值143.99(S&P n=17)，地板中枢39.5；纯价格驱动，10-21为2.07:1（Base PT HK$143.99）内部人 ⚪ HKEX DI 2026-10-01~10-24 查询总记录0；东财无董监高增减持/回购。华虹集团¥43.34换股(09-09完成)为协议价，非市价买入。10-22 EGM通过购股权计划(员工激励)。事件财报 8/13→11/5✓ · 催化 11-05 Q3业绩(盘后,港股反应日11-06)；无锡三期首期出资10-31截止 X X无华虹特定新论点；10-22单日-9.46%为恒指-3.03%带动的大盘+高beta集体杀跌，10-22 EGM购股权计划X上0命中；不改买区判断。提示现价67.45已跌入三档58-70内(买区58-91，距下沿+16.3%)，距52w收盘低66.30仅+1.7%，高于地板33-46；不追>140。风险：A/H溢价+188.5%、南向持续净卖、出口管制、无锡三期折旧。盯11-05 Q3毛利率≥18%与官方并表BPS(估算30.37)。
688521	2.61	¥124.79 周-1.0%	买区¥110-155 🟢买区内	熊市地板¥78(熊市地板表述为约70–85；论点证伪参考价85.18（2025-07-23周期低点）)	不追>¥230	观察名单（0仓）；跌进¥155以下可谈starter；Q3报告(10-31)前仓位不超starter一半
主锚 PS(TTM)×前瞻营收，按自身3年PS band分位；第二法市值/在手订单估值 PE N/M（亏损） · FPE PS_TTM 16.24x（3年band 5.94–54.24x 约47分位）；市值/在手订单 5.27x · PEG年 N/M 分位 PS 3年band约47分位；52w分位0.5% R:R口径上看¥247 +97.9% / 下看¥78 -37.5% ≈ 2.61:1（上轮2.52:1，目标/地板不变，因现价回落被动改善）。PT=2027 mid情景20x PS×65亿≈1300亿市值；无卖方PT。若¥117成交为3.3:1。（Base PT ¥247）内部人 🔴 无增持。大基金7/10计划(≤105.18万股)窗口至10-30，8-31集中竞价减494,700股(累计0.0941%)，尚余≤557,131股；执行副总裁汪志伟减持≤31,000股，窗口10-23起(首次)，暂无结果公告。事件财报 8/18→10/31✓ · 催化 Q3报告2026-10-31；大基金减持窗口10-30截止 X 窗口10-16后无新帖，仅旧帖与泛主题；无新增可核实信号。股价贴52w新低(¥123.50，10-22)，公告与X均无催化线索，不下结论。提示现价124.79位于买区110–155内、三档下沿附近，贴52w新低，较09-30回撤27.3%，原因无公告/X催化。亏损、PE无意义，收入确认口径(总额法)被上交所问询是最大风险。Q3报告10-31验证EBITDA转正与订单。大基金与汪志伟减持窗口在期。
CRDO	2.44	$147.29 周-13.2%	买区$195-215 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价已跌破/位于熊市地板带,R:R分母为负或趋零(N/M)	熊市地板$150(更深地板 L2 $120（4月放量底基下沿）；现价已收盘破 $150)	不追>$260	half（1/2）；地板击穿+竞争叙事当周不追加，首批持有，未建仓小额首批，二批等10-28/29 capex
主锚 Forward PE × FY27 NG EPS $5.35（第二法 PEG）估值 PE —（静态 GAAP 84.1x/NG 60.1x 为旧价口径） · FPE 27.5x @FY27 NG EPS $5.35（街道$6.31口径23.3x） · PEG年 ~0.58（10-23价口径）分位 52w 27.7%；自身前瞻带20x-58x约20%位置 R:R口径 base $214 口径因现价$147.29已破地板$150而失效（分母反号）；文件所写为 $120 压力测试 (214-147.29)/(147.29-120)=2.44:1，依赖$120假设无事件验证。（Base PT $214）内部人 🟡 窗口内无公开市场买入。最近：CTO Cheng信托10-20卖27,500股@$172.62(10b5-1)；CEO Brennan 10-19卖16,666股@$174.87(10b5-1)；卖价均高于现价；10-24无新Form 4。事件财报 9/1→11/30估 · 催化 10-28/29 hyperscaler Q3 capex指引；11-30(est) Q2财报 X 10-23 -9.5%破地板：X归因MaxLinear称将入1.6T AEC(首收2027)+板块融资情绪；无公司公告/卖方降级；多头称份额80-99%逢低加仓(未证实)。提示现价$147.29低于买区下沿24.5%，收盘破地板$150(-1.8%)，闸③触发但bear case未兑现(无EPS/指引下修，MXL为远期竞争叙事)。证伪线：收盘破$150且Q2 QoQ<+5%（后半待11-30验证）。若10-28/29两家以上下调2027 capex则重审地板。
STM	2.26	$44.02 周-3.0%	买区$48-56 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价距熊市地板<5%,R:R分母趋零(N/M)	熊市地板$44(L2 $34.3 (EV/Sales 2.0x FY26E, reference layer only, floor anchor unchanged))	不追>$80	starter 1/3 unchanged (conviction 2/8); hold if open, add only <=$43.4 within starter, no pre-positioning before 10/29
主锚 EV/Sales through-cycle band (deep-cyclical IDM); PT 2nd 估值 PE N/M (GAAP trough; PE discarded) · FPE EV/Sales 2.61x FY26E / 2.85x TTM; Fwd PE 31.4x (footnote only) · PEG年 N/M 分位 EV/Sales band 1.5-3.5x ~p55; 52w ~38.9% R:R口径 Honest R:R vs L2 $34.3 = 21.98/9.72 = 2.26:1 (<2.5 gate; gate price ~$43.36). Nominal vs $44 floor ~1100:1 is a denominator artifact (price only $0.02 above floor), not tradable.（Base PT $66）内部人 ⚪ FPI: no Form 4 since 2003, Form 144=0, no new filings. 10/19 6-K routine buyback 10/12-10/16 492,285 sh @ EUR 42.9537 (MAR 5(2) employee plan obligations, not insider buying). PDMR (AMF/CONSOB) not checked. 事件财报 7/23→10/29✓ · 催化 Q3 earnings 2026-10-29 (Q4 >$4B, DC ramp) X Low volume, no company-level catalyst. TSEM -10% silicon-photonics crowding narrative (10/20); STM -7.1% on 10/22 unexplained; official posts product marketing; sentiment neutral into 10/29. 提示 Price $44.02 sits at the $44 floor (+0.05%) and is 8.3% below the buy zone's lower edge $48. Anchor unchanged (buyzone_anchored 2026-10-17). Honest R:R 2.26 is still below the 2.5 gate. Watch the 10/29 Q3 report (consensus EPS $0.42, revenue $3.736B). Thesis breaks if price falls below $44 while the DC, optical and LEO lines don't improve.
SNPS	2.11	$430.14 周-5.4%	买区$467-496 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$372(地板结构性偏软; 09-15曾收367.70, 真bear叠加隐含~$295)	不追>$591	half档(三腿主分4: 护城河2/传导中1/估值1; 内部人0); 已有持有, 可小量分批, 财报前新增只建一半
主锚盈利复利/宽护城河: Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS指引中点$19.08 估值 PE TTM NG 30.88x · FPE FY27 NG 22.54x (FY26 28.54x) · PEG年 0.85x 分位 52w区间37.5%; NTM软估算band下中段(无精确API) R:R口径 base: (553-430.14)/(430.14-372)=122.86/58.14=2.11:1; average PT 563.94 -> 2.30:1; median 575 -> 2.49:1. 1.5:1线<=444, 2.5:1线<=424. 地板偏软。（Base PT $553）内部人 🟡 无买入。最近: CEO Ghazi 10-15行权即卖14,604股@$462.84($6.76M,10b5-1); Kankanwadi 10-05卖@$484.78-500; Lee 10-06@~$502。本周无新Form4/144, 卖价均高于现价。事件财报 8/26→12/9估 · 催化 2026-12-09 Q4 FY26财报(est)首次验证FY27指引; ~$1B回购执行 X AI取代芯片设计叙事延续(@PatrickToulme 720赞); 10-22跌因X未给出; 裁员2000人复述无SEC佐证; NVIDIA GTC cuDSS伙伴。无数字级新信息, 锚不变。提示现价430.14低于买区下沿467约7.9%, 高于地板372约15.6%, 远低于不追591。三闸均未触发, 锚仍为10-01。R:R 2.11已过1.5线。10-22单日约-6.3%原因不明, AI取代EDA叙事压制。12-09财报前新增只建一半, 防守看372。
00700	2.03	HK$386 周-7.6%	买区HK$380-425 🟢买区内	熊市地板HK$310	不追>HK$620	half (1/2) 维持，财报前上限
主锚 SOTP 核心PE×核心Non-IFRS EPS；第二法自身5yr前瞻PE band分位估值 PE 13.00x GAAP / 11.25x Non-IFRS · FPE NTM 10.91x；FY26E 11.42x；核心PE 10.18x(SOTP) · PEG年 1.68 (3年CAGR口径)；3.09 (FY26E增速，误导仅提示) 分位前瞻PE 0%分位(破5年min 11.90)；PB/EV-EBITDA/PS同在区间外 R:R口径文件写 R:R 2.03:1（现价386，base PT 540 / 地板 310）；380处2.29:1，区中400处1.56:1。base PT 540 低于卖方共识均值658.97约19-22%，文件已点名。（Base PT HK$540）内部人 🟡 公司回购日额100M(自8月底，较5-6月500M降80%)，末笔10-15 24万股@418.27，10-16起业绩前静默期，11-19恢复。独董杨绍信2026-04-10卖5,000股@503(极小、已停)。执行董事三年零增持。无MIH申报。事件财报 8/12→11/18✓ · 催化 11-18 Q3业绩(FY27 capex信号)；11-19起回购恢复日额 X 本周X无高互动推文解释10-22跌2.9%/10-23新低378；讨论集中DeepSeek融资传闻、WorkBuddy产品；无回购/Prosus/目标价新讯，不改锚。提示现价386在买区380-425下半段(380-400加仓档)，距52周盘中新低378仅+2.1%，高于地板310约24%。三闸未触发，锚仍为2026-09-19。风险：AI capex/FCF转负、回购静默至11-18、抖音时长超微信、Prosus减持。盯11-18财报与11-19回购恢复额，财报前最多half。
CLSK	1.98	$7.88 周-6.2%	买区$6.9-8.2 🟢买区内	熊市地板$6(L2 deep bear $0-2 (equity subordinated to $4.1B debt))	不追>$14	starter 1/3 (only inside buy zone; max half starter before earnings)
主锚 SOTP (BTC+cash−converts PV+Sandersville+Texas option) 估值 PE N/M · FPE N/A (FY26 GAAP EPS cons −4.10); SOTP archetype · PEG年 N/M 分位 3y price band ~10th pct (p10 $8.09) R:R口径 (11.6−7.88)/(7.88−6.0)=1.98:1 vs L1 floor; vs L2 <0.7:1; Bull 5.8:1 (not main). Zone R:R 2.5-5.2:1; $6.9 end distorted by shrinking denominator.（Base PT $11.6）内部人 🟡 0 open-market buys. Only CTO Monnig 10b5-1 sales (08-14 $11.51; 09-04/08 $12.61-13.34; 10-01 $12.33), all far above current; none since 10-01. Execs' sells are RSU tax withholding. 事件财报 8/6→11/24估 · 催化 10-28 Meta Q3 (capex); Texas LOI to lease X Canaccord initiates Buy PT $20 (10-22, X-reported); BNS 13G/A down to 3.9%; retail sentiment worsening after $8 break, $6 next; no company-specific bad news. 提示 Price $7.88 sits in upper buy zone (starter tier $7.6-8.2), new 52w low (intraday 7.825), no price support; L1 floor $6.0 is only 24% below. Highly levered: equity behind $1.81B converts + $2.28B project debt; BTC <$55K plus Texas failure makes equity ~0. No chase above $14. Watch Meta 10-28, 11-24 10-K.
MRVL	1.89	$228.51 周+0.3%	买区$240-265 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$180(L2 deeper floor $157.5 (35x × blended bear EPS $4.5), R:R 1.29:1)	不追>$360	3/8 starter (unchanged); add line ≤$230 reached; small steps below 50DMA
主锚 AI-era forward PE band (35-90x) on FY27 mid EPS $4.20 估值 PE 75.4x GAAP TTM (NG TTM 69.3x) · FPE 54.4x FY27 mid $4.20 (blended $5.1 → 44.8x; FY28E $6.5 → 35.2x) · PEG年 ~1.14 分位 fwd-PE ≈ p35 of [35-90x] AI band; 52w price 63.8% R:R口径 (PT 320 − 228.51)/(228.51 − 180) = 91.49/48.51 ≈ 1.89:1. At zone bottom $240 1.33:1, $230 1.80:1, $220 2.5:1. Consensus PT $339.36 (carried, 10-16) not used in R:R.（Base PT $320）内部人 🟡 No buys in window; zero new Form 4/144 since 10-16. CEO Murphy 10-16 sold 7,500 @ $235.47 (10b5-1=Y); Bharathi 3,685 @ $234.97 (10b5-1); CAO Scarpulla 10-08/09 1,100 @ ~$273.59 (non-plan, small). 事件财报 8/27→12/1估 · 催化 FY27 Q3 earnings ~2026-12-01 (est); Google/AWS/Maia custom XPU ramps X Sentiment moved from breakdown panic to dip-buying talk; BofA PT $400, KeyBanc Maia 400, Celestial AI optical memory launch; no hard new fundamentals; 10-22 −8.7% drop unexplained. 提示 Price $228.51 is 4.8% below the zone bottom $240; gates did not fire, anchor from 2026-10-10 unchanged. It sits 26.9% above the $180 floor and 50DMA $242.90 (−5.9%), 200DMA $179.47. Fwd PE 54.4x. R:R 1.89:1, above the 1.5 bar. Watch FY27 Q3 on 12-01, Koopmans' ~11-02 10b5-1 sale, and the 10-22 unexplained drop.
RDDT	1.74	$144.25 周-7.6%	买区$130-148 🟢买区内	熊市地板$118(bear math 106-118; 52w low 119.77 (IEX))	不追>$222	half 1/2 (synthetic 4/8, maintained); no new exposure before 10-29 earnings
主锚 EV/Sales(fwd) band + Fwd PE / Fwd P/FCF 估值 PE 33.5x TTM GAAP · FPE Fwd PE 26.2x (FY26 EPS 5.5); EV/S fwd 8.08x; Fwd P/FCF 22.1x · PEG年 0.25 (FY26 fwd, reference only) 分位 EV/S fwd ~10 pctile of 7-18x band; FwdPE below 27-58x band floor R:R口径 (190-144.25)/(144.25-118)=45.75/26.25=1.74:1; base PT 190. At zone top 148: 1.40; midpoint 139: 2.43; low 130: 5.0. 1.5 threshold price ~146.8.（Base PT $190）内部人 🟡 No open-market buys since 2026-04-24 (Farrell's P buys 61k sh @ $132-150 were Feb-Mar, stale). CEO 10b5-1 sold 10-13 @158.57 (and 09-29 @144.87); COO 10b5-1 sold 10-14 @150.55; Sauerberg 08-25 @159.92. 0 Form 4 this week. 事件财报 7/30→10/29✓ · 催化 Q3 FY26 earnings 2026-10-29 AMC; AI data licensing deal / 2027 renegotiation X No first-hand fundamental news. Four-day drop read as pre-earnings profit-taking/technical retest; bears expect weak DAU, bulls cite consensus EPS; Stan Ventures: Google Sept update lifted forums. 提示 Price 144.25 fell into the 130-148 zone (2.5% below the top), R:R 1.74 clears the 1.5 bar. But earnings are 10-29 (T-4) and the stock moved -20.6% on the last print, so no new exposure before then. Floor 118 is 18.2% below. Stop if price breaks 118 and ad growth or DAU thesis fails. Watch whether search traffic stays choppy and whether US logged-in DAU is positive.
FORM	1.69	$98.51 周-6.2%	买区$95-105 🟢买区内	熊市地板$68	不追>$155	starter继续持有;小仓可$95-100分批,标准仓等10-28财报后按闸①重推(half(1/2)目标档)
主锚半导体测试周期成长(AI-memory再定级)·Forward PE×FY+1 NG EPS;第二法EV/EBITDA 估值 PE TTM NG PE 45x · FPE FY26 31.8x / FY27 25.6x NG PE; EV/EBITDA FY26 ~23x · PEG年 — (最新价未算; 旧价$129.69时 FY26 0.31/FY27 1.40) 分位 52w区间47.7%; FY26 PE回到5yr band(~18-35x)带顶内 R:R口径 ($150-$98.51)/($98.51-$68)=1.69:1 (上轮1.22); $95处2.04, $105上沿1.22; 卖方共识PT均值$153.89/中位$165(未重查)（Base PT $150）内部人 🟡 CEO Slessor 2026-10-14 10b5-1卖11,098股@均价$125.20(既有2025-08-19计划),累计净卖~177,624股;董事Steven-Waiss 09-03卖@$96.10;零买入;10-17后无新Form4/144 事件财报 7/29→10/28✓ · 催化 Q3 FY26财报2026-10-28; Teradyne $300M私募交割(预计FY26 Q4) X 10-22 AI板块普跌(FORM -13.68%,hyperscaler capex担忧),无公司特有利空;X转述新工厂开业未获公告证实;无一手新信息,待10-28财报提示现价$98.51在买区$95-105内(距下沿+3.7%),R:R 1.69首超1.5门槛;三周连跌-29.5%,10-22属板块性急跌。财报10-28两个交易日后,事件闸:财报前至多半仓;关注Q3指引$270M/NG EPS $0.86、SK hynix集中度24.3%、Teradyne交割。
COHR	1.68	$209.29 周-10.1%	买区$205-240 🟢买区内	熊市地板$120(EV/EBITDA cross-check $114)	不追>$315	half (5/6; max half before the 11-04 earnings; add only inside the $205-240 zone, core add at $222 or below)
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS_mid $9.10 (3y/5y band) 估值 PE TTM NG PE 37.3x · FPE 23.0x (FY27 EPS_mid $9.10; consensus 22.2x; FY28 15.0x) · PEG年 0.55 (FY27 forward, stated at 10-09 price) 分位 Fwd PE 23.0x below 5y p50 (24.0x), near 3y p25 (23.5x) R:R口径 (359-209.29)/(209.29-120)=1.68:1; base $359 = FY28 consensus $13.96 x 25.7x. With PT median $420: 2.36:1, but the PT median is stale (Susquehanna $350 and TD Cowen $275 cuts not re-fetched).（Base PT $359）内部人 ⚪ Zero open-market buys in window. Latest open-market sale 2026-09-15 DiGirolamo 5,315 sh @ $305.99, far above the current price. 10-21 Beard F tax withholding 5,127 sh @ $231.80 (non-open-market). CEO has never sold. 事件财报 8/12→11/4✓ · 催化 2026-11-04 Q1 FY27 earnings; Sherman 6-inch InP capacity doubling by end of CY2026 X 10-22 US optical chain sold off together: Susquehanna PT $425 to $350, TD Cowen $395 to $275, ratings kept. X sees sector multiple compression with no company-specific refutation. All of this is relayed on X, unverified. 提示 $209.29 is inside the buy zone, 2.1% above the $205 lower edge and 5.7% below the $222 core-add line. It broke the 2026 double bottom of $215.55/$220.68. The 10-22 drop was 12.5% in one day. Floor is $120 and the no-chase line is $315. Sell-side PTs are being cut (the $420 PT median is stale). No more adds before the 11-04 earnings, and the total position stays at half or less. Watch revenue of $2.3B or more, Q2 guidance of $2.5B or more, and NG gross margin of 40.5% or more. FCF is negative (-$1.02B in FY26) and the top customer is 20% of revenue.
KLAC	1.44	$145.61 周-12.1%	买区$135-160 🟢买区内	熊市地板$85(深度 bear $64-77)	不追>$182	half(1/2)，仅在 $135-160 执行；现价入买区可小仓分批，10-28 财报前不重仓
主锚盈利复利/宽护城河: Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS + 5yr band; 第二法 EV/EBITDA 估值 PE ~39.8x TTM GAAP · FPE 28.8x (FY27 mid NG EPS $5.05); EV/EBITDA ~31.5x · PEG年 ~0.83 分位 5yr fwd PE band 16-30x (28.8x 近上沿); 52w 区间分位 18.7% R:R口径 (232.77-145.61)/(145.61-85)=1.44:1; PT=stockanalysis 卖方共识 $232.77 (上轮 233.77); 仍略<1.5 门槛; 若用卖方低位 PT $175 则 R:R 明显更低（Base PT $232.77）内部人 🟡 窗口内无公开市场买入/无裸卖。最新 2026-09-15 CEO Wallace 10b5-1 卖 72,019股 @$171.88; 08-11 CEO/总裁 @$198.95, 08-12 CFO @$209.87, 均高于现价后停止; 10-17起零新增申报事件财报 7/28→10/28✓ · 催化 2026-10-28 Q1 FY27 财报+Q2指引; 2nm/HBM/先进封装 ramp X 无新增基本面; 周跌-12.1%因 Lam 财报后设备股杀跌/零部件洁净室短缺担忧(二手); RSI 24.7超卖, $166支撑破位, 估值帖合理区$135-160 提示现价$145.61入买区$135-160偏上半区,低于不追$182; R:R 1.44略<1.5, 10-28财报前不重仓留子弹等指引。三闸均未触发,锚维持2026-09-19(10-31到期,财报先触发闸①)。风险:增长节奏/供给约束、TSMC 19%集中、中国29.8%、DSO 78天; 跌破$85且driver未改善减仓。
OUST	1.4	$29.69 周+4.4%	买区$34-40 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$27(深度熊 $18)	不追>$46	starter/2（公式3分→starter 1/3，内部人−半档）；可小仓试探，11-03财报前不加至starter以上，财报拆分建仓
主锚 EV/Sales band (9–11x FY26E)；第二法情景桥+现金跑道底估值 PE N/M（亏损） · FPE N/M；Fwd EV/Sales 7.72x（TTM EV/S 8.25x） · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w价格分位28.0%；买区带EV/S 9–11x，现7.72x低于带 R:R口径文件写：base $46，地板$27口径=16.31/2.69=6.06:1（分母近零伪影，不采信）；深度熊$18口径=16.31/11.69=1.40:1（<1.5门槛，采用此诚实版）。卖方PT均为08-26前旧评级(stale)。（Base PT $46）内部人 🟢 窗口内唯一公开市场买入：董事Boulet 2026-05-12买1,658股@$25.35（小额）。卖出：09-14全C-suite簇卖@$33.96、08-18 CFO@$44.65–47.09、06-16簇卖@$38.82，均高于现价；10-07 Heystee以股代费非市场交易；本周零新增。事件财报 8/6→11/3✓ · 催化 11-03 Q3财报(AMC)；Rev8量产爬坡与Q3毛利率≥45% X 叙事转向产品面：Forterra Lancer乌克兰任务(Rev7 OS1)、Gecko海军合同(客户方消息)、BlueCity演示；技术面多空并存；无公司级新披露/利空，11-03财报为裁决点。提示现价29.69低于买区下沿12.7%、高于地板27约10%，距财报仅约7个交易日。Fwd EV/S 7.72x低于9–11x带。6.06:1为伪影，诚实R:R为1.40:1(深度熊$18)，未过1.5门槛。风险：Q2毛利率剔一次性后仅约39%、单客户32%、高管反复在高位卖出。$27收盘失守且Rev8/毛利率恶化则论点证伪。
LRCX	1.39	$230.1 周-12.8%	买区$235-272 🔁本周重锚 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价低于买区下沿,bear case可能兑现	熊市地板$118-132(floor = trough EPS 6.6 × 18-20x; 2nd method EV/EBITDA gives 187-224 (not a floor))	不追>$415	half(1/2) quality grade; can start 1/4 starter now, add below $235, up to half near $187-224
主锚 Fwd PE 25-29x (cycle-normalized) × FY27 EPS mid 9.4 估值 PE 34.3x TTM GAAP · FPE 24.5x fwd (FY27 EPS mid $9.4; low 26.1x / high 23.0x) · PEG年 — 分位 — R:R口径 PT mean 375.81 / floor mid 125: upside +145.71 (+63.3%) vs downside -105.10 (-45.7%) = ~1.39:1 at 230.10; at buy-zone low 235 = 1.28:1; at zone mid 253.5 = 0.95:1. PT from SPG source, not refreshed.（Base PT $375.81）重锚 Gate 1 (Q1 FY27 8-K/10-Q): zone 225-260 to 235-272, floor 110-130 to 118-132, no-chase 395 to 415; FY27 EPS mid 9.0 to 9.4 内部人 🔴 Director Mayer 2026-09-09 sold 9,557 sh @ $314.74 (non-10b5-1, naked sale). CEO Archer 10b5-1 sales 09-09 @ $319.26; Form 144 filed 10-23 for 31,400 sh @ ~$227 (10b5-1). No open-market buys. 事件财报 10/21→1/27估 · 催化 Q2 FY27 earnings 2027-01-27 (est); WFE 2027 guide / supply constraints X Beat but fell: Q2 guide midpoint only in line, PCB/parts supply bottleneck, China share 35% to drop next quarter; RSI 25 oversold; Benzinga 20 Buy vs 1 Hold. 提示 Price 230.10 is 2.1% below zone floor 235 after -11.9% earnings-day drop; the zone moved up on EPS, not to chase price. R:R 1.39 is below the 1.5 starter bar. Watch FCF/NI repeat, the Q2 guide, supply bottlenecks, China share, and insider selling.
LITE	1.21	$756.17 周-8.2%	买区$700-789 🟢买区内	熊市地板$389(24x x Bear EPS $16.20; thesis-break floor)	不追>$1,189	half 1/2 (moat narrow 1, transmission high 2, valuation 2 = 5/6)
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS (PT band/PEG/COHR 2nd) 估值 PE 87.2x (TTM Non-GAAP; GAAP N/M) · FPE 34.70x FPE (FY27 NG EPS $21.79) · PEG年 0.53 (FY28/FY27) 分位自身5季度FPE带[25.9x,60.0x]约26分位 R:R口径 (PT median 1200 - 756.17) / (756.17 - 389) = 1.21:1 (upside +58.7%, downside -48.6%); vs mean PT 1179.07 = 1.15:1. Below 1.5 threshold.（Base PT $1,200）内部人 🟡 No open-market buys. Last: CFO Ali 10/1 sold 24,542 @ $1,048.50 (10b5-1, ~$25.7M); Yuen 9/28-29 small 10b5-1 sells @ ~$945-948. Zero new Form 4/144 since 10/2; current price 28% below. 事件财报 8/11→11/5✓ · 催化 FY27 Q1 earnings 11/5 post-mkt; CPO/OCS ramp X Week -8.2% on sector-wide optical selloff (multiple compression, not orders); CEO says no order deferrals; Broadcom laser value per chip; no SEC-level news. 提示 Price 756.17 now inside buy zone 700-789 (4.2% below upper edge), below 200DMA 788. R:R 1.21 still under 1.5. Floor 389 is 48.6% below. Drop is multiple compression; EPS consensus unchanged. Watch 11/5 earnings. Insider 10b5-1 sells far above price.
VPG	1.06	$53.25 周-11.8%	买区$45-65 🟢买区内	熊市地板$28(尾部 $17.5)	不追>$100	观察 (0仓/watchlist), conviction 1/6
主锚 EV/Sales x 本名历史 band (故事股/叙事再定价); 第二法正常化EPS x15-22x+净现金估值 PE N/M (经常性TTM亏损; GAAP TTM EPS $0.30, 文件旧价$79.07时~264x) · FPE EV/Sales 1.91x FY26E (1.98x TTM); band 1.5-2.5x · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w close 分位 19.9% ($29.28-$149.91) R:R口径 ($80 - $53.25) / ($53.25 - $28) = 26.75/25.25 = 1.06:1; 上轮 0.60:1; 低于 1.5 门槛（Base PT $80）内部人 ⚪ 最新 Form 4 为 2026-05-20 (5份常规年会授予, 窗口外); 之后零申报, 连续第十三轮零买入零卖出; 窗口内无 Code P 买入。事件财报 8/5→11/4✓ · 催化 Q3 FY26 财报 2026-11-04; 人形客户 2H'26 量产/订单披露 X 10-22单日约-18%暴跌, 原因未证实(获利了结/技术性卖出); Tesla Optimus解读为推测; 无公司新披露、无新卖方PT。提示现价$53.25在买区$45-65内, 距上沿低18.1%, 距$45-52双线支撑区上沿仅2.4%; R:R 1.06仍低于1.5门槛。周跌11.8%, 10-22单日约-18%无申报无解释。基本面: H1'26营业利润率0.03%、经营现金流净流出、GAAP亏损, 叙事交易。看11-04财报: 营收$84-89M、利润率转正、人形营收。闸2约10-31触发。
SKHY	0.93	$137.02 周+0.4%	买区$127-154 🟢买区内	熊市地板$51(严重 glut 约 $30; KRX 地板 ₩603k)	不追>$200	观察(0仓); R:R<1.5 不建底; 财报前最多半仓
主锚深周期存储: EV/EBITDA x mid-cycle EBITDA 7x + 净现金 + Kioxia; 2nd 合理 P/B 估值 PE N/M (峰值 EPS 陷阱; EV/TTM EBITDA 7.9x ADS / 5.1x KRX) · FPE PE 2026E 经常性 6.4x ADS / 4.5x KRX; 2027E mid 4.2x / 2.9x; P/B 4.38x / 3.05x · PEG年 N/M (周期顶假性极低) 分位 P/B 分位未重算 (10-01 时约 p88-90 估) R:R口径 ($217-$137.02)/($137.02-$51)=0.93:1 ADS; KRX (₩2.15M-₩1.263M)/(₩1.263M-₩603k)=1.34:1。均 <1.5 门槛。ADS 含约 44% 溢价, 能买 KRX 本体更优。（Base PT $217）内部人 🟢 FPI 无 Form 4; DART: 崔泰源 2026-07-30 公开市场买入 3,620 股 @₩1,353,677 (₩49亿); 公司 ₩40T 回购(基准₩1.662M)。小额部门长买入 9/16; 高位卖出者(6/24、5/29)已停手。10/17-24 无新申报。事件财报 7/29→11/13估 · 催化 10/28 Q3 业绩+新回报方案; hyperscaler 财报/capex X Solidigm IPO 终止; 回购传提前完成; Jensen 称2029年前无内存过剩, KeyBanc 看 HBM 涨价; 韩国唱空与抄底并存。二手, 不改锚。提示 ADS $137.02 在买区内(距下沿+7.9%), 但 R:R 0.93<1.5 故观察不建底; KRX ₩1,263,000 低于 KRX 买区下沿 8.5%, ADS 溢价 +43.9%。10/28 Q3 为关键事件(T-2); 论点证伪: DRAM/HBM 合约价 QoQ 转负或 LTA 松动。
1810	0.78	HK$26.8 周+0.5%	买区HK$25.5-27.5 🟢买区内	熊市地板HK$17-18(15x FY27e bear EPS HK$1.20=18.0；论点证伪价收盘持续<21且回购缩量)	不追>HK$31	half（分批建至半仓，3.0/4）；现价starter小仓可持有不追加
主锚 PE x FY27e 调整后 EPS (HK$1.54) + 自身5年PE band分位估值 PE TTM ~17.6x (调整后) · FPE FY26e ~23.9x / FY27e ~17.4x · PEG年 ~0.40 (FY27前瞻，低基数失真) 分位 5年PE band 17-39x 贴近下沿；52w分位~20.5% R:R口径上看卖方中位PT 34 (+26.9%) / 下看地板17.5 (-34.7%) = 0.78:1；均值PT 32.26口径0.60:1；近窗口n=7中位35口径~0.97:1；三档21.5成交约3.1:1。低于1.5门槛。（Base PT HK$34）内部人 ⚪ (公司 FF305 回购≠内部人公开市场买入,口径更正) 公司回购(FF305)：10-21 190万股@26.82、10-22 408.6万股@~25.76；mandate累计142,098,000股(5.50%)。雷军增持@38.58为2025-11-24(窗口外)。林斌2026-12起减持计划(预告式，未执行)。事件财报 8/18→11/24✓ · 催化 2026-11-24 Q3业绩；EV月交付>6万/内存拐点；2026-12林斌减持启动(负) X 44条几乎全是噪音(DHH深圳活动、电视去广告项目、SU7旧闻)；无SkyNomad官方订单数字，无DRAM新证据；无新增估值信号，锚不变。提示现价26.80在一档starter区间(25.5-27.5)内，距下沿+5.1%、上沿-2.5%，远高于地板17-18，低于不追31。三闸未触发，buyzone_anchored仍2026-10-03。R:R 0.78:1低于1.5门槛，小仓持有不追加，加仓等二档23-24.5或Q3业绩确认内存拐点。风险：内存周期、EV价格战；盯回购节奏与林斌12月减持。信号绿灯为公司回购，非内部人买入。
INTC	0.75	$86.96 周-3.2%	买区$75-92 🟢买区内	熊市地板$48(深熊线$32（P/B ~1.8x）)	不追>$130	小仓starter(1/3)维持不动；超starter加仓等区下沿$75附近，财报前不追加
主锚 EV/Sales 自身band + P/B + 分部SOTP（PE/PEG失效）估值 PE N/M（GAAP亏损） · FPE FPE ~57-61x（FY26 NG EPS 1.42-1.52）；EV/Sales 8.02x，P/B 4.17x · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w close区间49.7%分位；EV/Sales>5yr band顶4x达2.0倍 R:R口径共识PT均值116.3: (116.3-86.96)/(86.96-48)=+0.75；中位114→+0.69；Citi130→1.10；KeyBanc155→1.75；HSBC200→2.90。PT沿用10/16重拉，价格驱动非基本面变化。（Base PT $116.3）内部人 🟢 2026-08-11 CEO Lip-Bu Tan 公开市场买入(Code P)105,263股@$95.00(约$10M，8/14申报，无10b5-1)；8/15起Form 4/144零新增。现价低其成本8.5%。事件财报 7/23→10/29✓ · 催化 10/29 Q3'26财报(盘后)；Foundry外部客户/18A放量 X 本周无SEC级催化；10/21官方号发Naga美国产能/Ohio文章；10/23转述台媒称Intel/AMD/NVIDIA向ABF载板厂预付共$5B(Intel $3B，未核实)；散户叙事抄底/财报前布局。提示现价86.96在买区75-92内(低于上沿5.4%，高于下沿15.3%)，距地板48高81%，距不追130低32%。10/22单日-8%无公司专属原因。共识R:R 0.75未过1.5。EV/Sales仍远高于历史band；10/29财报为二元事件，已建starter不动。
AMKR	N/M	$39.3 周-6.0%	买区$54-61 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价已跌破/位于熊市地板带,R:R分母为负或趋零(N/M)	熊市地板$42(18-19x x Bear EPS 2.25; price already 6.4% below floor, bear case not yet confirmed)	不追>$82	half 1/2 (hold; no add, no trim; await 10/26 Q3)
主锚 Forward PE x FY26E EPS $2.55 (capex-beta OSAT); 2nd: EV/EBITDA 估值 PE 17.6x · FPE 15.4x (FY26E EPS 2.55); 17.5x on Bear EPS 2.25 · PEG年 0.22 (full-year fwd) 分位 52w 14.4% position; pre-AI fwd PE 10-18x, fair 21-26x R:R口径 N/A: price 39.30 below floor 42 (denominator negative). Upside to Base PT 67 = +70.5%. Not usable for ranking.（Base PT $67）内部人 🟡 No open-market buys. Latest: CFO Faust 2026-10-13 sold 1,000 sh @ $46.92 (10b5-1 monthly plan); Alexander 10/2 @ $55.00 (10b5-1). No new Form 4/144 since 10/17; price below all sell prices. 事件财报 7/27→10/26✓ · 催化 Q3 FY26 earnings 10/26 AMC (GM guide 18.5-19.5%); NVIDIA $1.3B Korea deal X Week dominated by NVIDIA GTC Berlin and Amkor $1.3B Korea packaging deal (10/21); stock spiked then fell 10.7% on 10/22 to $39.06, no primary-source cause. Sector panic; no EPS cuts. Anchors unchanged. 提示 Price 39.30 is 6.4% below the 42 floor and 27.2% below the 54-61 buy zone. Gate 3 fired, but no evidence the bear case is playing out (no 8-K, no estimate cuts), so the anchor is unchanged. Q3 on 10/26 decides it: gross margin under 18.5% means the bear case is playing out and the floor gets cut. Gate 2 will fire next week (anchor age 49 days).
VICR	N/M	$176.04 周-8.1%	买区$243-283 🔁本周重锚 🟢深度买区(低于下沿) ⚠️ 现价已跌破/位于熊市地板带,R:R分母为负或趋零(N/M)	熊市地板$215(16x P/S × bear FY26 $640.0M ÷ 47.708M；现价已低于地板 18.1%)	不追>$404	starter (1/3) 维持，不升档
主锚 P/S 倍数带 (16/18-21/27/30x × FY26E $643M ÷ 47.708M 摊薄股) 估值 PE 46.1x (GAAP TTM, EPS $3.82) · FPE fwd P/S 12.6x(加权)/13.1x(摊薄) FY26E $643M; FY26E PE 42.8x, FY27E 28.8x · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w 收盘区间 $83.28–$379.78 分位 31.3%; 距 ATH -53.6% R:R口径文件写明：现价 $176.04 < 地板 $215，(公允-现价)/(现价-地板) 分母为负，公式失效，不给倍数；改以公允 $364 上行 +106.8% / 地板下方 -18.1% 描述。（Base PT $364）重锚闸①(Q3 8-K)触发重推：地板 $211→$215；买区 $243-283、公允 $364、不追 $404 不变；闸③复核维持倍数带。内部人 🟡 窗口内零公开市场买入。最近：Vinciarelli 10-01/10-02 各卖 20,000 股 @ $316.13/$310.12，Davies 10-01 卖 3,072 股 @ $316.37，均 10b5-1；现价低其约 43%；10-17→10-23 零新增。事件财报 10/20→2/18估 · 催化 Q3 10-Q 预计 10-27 前后; 下次财报 2027-02-18 (est) X Q4 基线($43M 授权)低于 Q3、一次性追溯 vs recurring 之争；10-22 单日 -15.7% X 上无硬解释，列为情绪性回撤；多头在 $190s 加仓；未见推翻 Q3 基本面的新事实。提示现价 $176.04 在地板 $215 下 18.1%、买区下沿下 27.6%，公允 $364 上行 +107%。Q3 beat、现金 $513M 无债，但 Q4 基线($186.6M)低于 Q3、backlog 仅 +7% QoQ，授权含一次性追溯。10-22 单日 -15.7% 无公司事件。R:R 公式失效。盯 10-Q、新增 VPD 许可、ITC 337-TA-1526。

🟡 公允偏上（23家 · 按收益风险比↓ 排）

Ticker	收益风险比	现价	买区	地板	不追	仓位
NVDA	1.86	$210.96 周-1.5%	买区$184-202 🔁本周重锚 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$155(18x x Bear FY27 NG EPS $8.60; 52w low $164.27; not price-validated)	不追>$267	Starter 1/3 target tier (score 4.5 after -0.5 insider modifier), but no entry now: price above buy zone, hold cash and watch below $202
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS_mid $9.20 (compounder/wide moat) 估值 PE GAAP TTM 26.7x / NG TTM 29.8x · FPE 22.9x FY27 NG (EPS $9.20; consensus $9.31 = 22.7x) · PEG年 0.25 (FY27); FY28 0.32 分位 5y fwd PE band ~p22 (rough; band 20x/33x/50x+) R:R口径 (315-210.96)/(210.96-155)=104.04/55.96=1.86:1; PT = stockanalysis median $315 (38 analysts, 2026-10-22); mean $323.29 gives 2.01:1; prior round 1.71:1. At $202, R:R would be 2.40:1.（Base PT $315）重锚 Gate 2 triggered (49 days since 2026-09-05); re-derived, values unchanged: zone 184-202, floor 155, no-chase 267, PT 315; anchored date now 2026-10-24. 内部人 🔴 Director Stevens naked sale (no 10b5-1) 2026-09-18, 1,366,000 sh @ $219.73, +4.2% above current. 60d cumulative naked sales 4,236,740 sh. No buys; no new Form 4 since 10-09 (Coxe gift). Teter 09-21 10b5-1 @ $222.80. 事件财报 8/26→11/18估 · 催化 11-18 Q3 FY27 earnings; Hugging Face close (2027 H1) X GTC Berlin: Vera Rubin in full production, software licensing ~$2,000/GPU/yr remark, neocloud backstop disclaimer; supplier capacity deals (unverified). Bullish narrative, price fell. Not used for valuation. 提示 $210.96 is 4.4% above the $202 top of the buy zone, 59% of the 52w range, 13.3% off the high, and 3.7% above the 200DMA. Fwd PE 22.9x. R:R 1.86:1, which the file says not to use as an entry reason. Stay in cash until price drops below $202. Floor $155 is 36% away. Don't chase above $267. Watch Stevens selling, the 11-18 Q3 report (unconfirmed), the $150B buyback 8-K still missing, China export policy, and the $105B OpenAI guarantee.
BABA	1.8	$99.64 周-8.7%	买区$89-98 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$80((HK$78; 极端尾部 5y-lo $58))	不追>$165	starter (1/3)；拆两半: $98-100附近1/6, 余1/6留$89-95; 财报前最多半仓
主锚 SOTP (holdco) 主锚 + 合并前瞻PE第二法估值 PE 22.7x GAAP / 34.8x 经常性 · FPE 14.6x FY27e 非GAAP EPS $6.81 (FY28e 12.3x) · PEG年 0.71 (FY28口径; FY27 0.23 基数失真) 分位前瞻PE 5年带线性位~68%(中上段); SOTP折价43.7%(带25-55%) R:R口径 (135-99.64)/(99.64-80)=1.80:1 @现价; 建仓区中值$93.5为3.1:1. Base PT=FY28e EPS $8.11 x 16.6x. 另: SOTP-Base $177, 卖方PT $186(不用于R:R).（Base PT $135）内部人 🟢 2026-08-24/25 蔡崇信(PMH)公开市场买入(P) US$20.71M @$114.32/$115.76, CEO吴泳铭 8-24 US$4.98M @$113.92; 现价低12.5-14%. 另 10-02申报 CPO蒋芳 9/30 港股卖US$12.0M @~$108.4(🟡参考) 事件财报 8/20→11/24估 · 催化 FY27Q2财报 est 2026-11-24; 双十一CMR; Apsara阿姆斯特丹大会 10-29 X 周跌8.7%破$100, 归因监管收紧(彭博)+FT称白宫备忘录指阿里涉军(阿里否认,未证实); 路透称3M张RTX Pro 5500订单; 无公司层面新事实,锚不变提示现价$99.64贴近买区上沿(高1.7%)未进区; 距重锚35天, 三闸未触发, 锚定2026-09-19。风险: 摊薄(停回购+折价增发)、capex/FCF -$11.4B、监管/地缘尾部; 盯FY27Q2云增速≥40%与AI Labs亏损收窄。
AMZN	1.6	$248 周-0.8%	买区$227-243 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$196	不追>$313	half (1/2); 已持有拿住, 未建仓等$243以下或10-29财报后再评
主锚 Forward PE x FY26核心EPS_mid $8.1 (盈利复利/宽护城河); 二法EV/EBITDA 估值 PE 核心TTM ~33.0x (GAAP ~20x虚低勿用) · FPE ~30.6x (核心EPS $8.1); EV/EBITDA ~16.1x · PEG年 ~0.8-1.1 (营业利润增速口径) 分位 band中枢略偏下 (近似; 买入带28-30x=p35-50) R:R口径 (331.29-248)/(248-196)=~1.60 均值PT(stockanalysis 10-07,n=45,未重拉); 中位$330→1.58; BofA/Bernstein $320→1.38; 面板最高$400→2.92; Redburn $230 Hold为负（Base PT $331.29）内部人 🟡 10-17起零新申报。Herrington 10-01卖1,000股@$251.50(10b5-1,月度小额); Bezos 08-03卖1.21M股@$286.41(10b5-1),近11.5周无第二笔。无公开市场买入。事件财报 7/30→10/29✓ · 催化 10-29 Q3 FY26财报(盘后16:01); AWS增速/backlog $496B X 10-19 MS升Top Pick PT$350(二手)、10-22回落约5%; 10-23 Jassy称AI推理成本仍高一个数量级、AWS 2026产能售罄; 情绪偏多, 多条财报前回调买入; 非SEC申报。提示现价$248高于买区上沿$243约+2.1%, 持有区临近买区, 距不追$313尚远, 远高于地板$196。三闸未触发, 锚维持09-12; 锚龄恰42天, 10-29财报后必重推。风险: capex TTM $173B、FCF -$7.6B、杠杆上升。财报前不追。
03690	1.43	HK$71.65 周-5.4%	买区HK$63-69 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板HK$51.5(无锚,低于52周低63.65约19%;Bear EV/S 0.35x+组合再跌30%)	不追>HK$95	half(1/2) conviction,仅在HKD63-69入场;69挂1/3、65加1/3、60以下补足;现价不动手
主锚 SOTP(核心EV/EBIT×正常化分部利润+净现金+组合折价);二法EV/Sales band 估值 PE N/M(TTM归母净亏¥384.5亿) · FPE FY26E ~178x无意义;FY27E共识EPS¥4.13约15x;核心EV/EBIT~9.0x(FY27E base) · PEG年 N/M 分位 EV/Sales 0.78x、P/B 2.15x 均5年20季最低区间(p0,未重算) R:R口径文件写 1.43:1(现价71.65;上行+40.2% vs 下行-28.2%,base PT 100.44、地板51.47)。<1.5不建底;66入场2.37:1;01内有一处过期的1.02:1旧文,以1.43为准。（Base PT HK$100.44）内部人 🟡 王兴场内减持:2026-06-02 12.7万股@84.91;07-03 4.5万股@71.50(≈现价),此后停手。无董事场内买入;FF305零新回购(上次2026-06-29/30 292万股@66.5-69.00)。10-24 DI复查无新场内买卖。事件财报 8/28→11/27估 · 催化 2026Q3业绩(估11-27,未公告);叮咚买菜反垄断审批;北京市监局到店酒旅立案结果 X X情绪中性偏噪音;SAMR座谈会串帖经核实美团未列名,无估值含义;Q3加大补贴传闻无新佐证;无增量论点,买区/地板不变。提示现价71.65高于买区上沿3.8%,R:R 1.43<1.5不建底,等≤69。52周分位18%,距200DMA -13.5%。估值线均处5年低位但CLC利润率仍只有7.9%,band低位不等于便宜。风险:补贴战重燃、北京立案、叮咚审批。盯Q3 CLC利润率是否≥10%。
CEG	1.38	$253.45 周-6.6%	买区$225-250 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$200(恐慌底 163)	不追>$380	starter (1/3), 须价格进 $225-250 才执行; R:R 1.38 暂不建仓
主锚 Forward PE × FY27 Adj Op EPS (IPP 合约化核电; 第二法 P/FCFbG) 估值 PE TTM Adj 23.8x (GAAP 噪音不用) · FPE FY27 19.5x / NTM 21.4x / FY26 20.9x · PEG年季度 0.87 (Calpine 台阶假低); FY27 2.9; 2026-29 CAGR 1.6 分位 NTM PE 约 p19 (2.6 年 band) R:R口径 (327-253.45)/(253.45-200)=1.38:1, <1.5 不建仓; @250 1.5:1, @240 2.2:1, @230 3.2:1. PT=base 327, 地板 200.（Base PT $327）内部人 🟢 董事 Crandall 2026-08-11 公开市场买入 1,500 股 @ $278.62 (~$418K), 单人象征性; 0 笔卖出. Calpine CEO Novotny 三份 Form 144 拟卖(并购对价股, ~$263-275), 无 Form 4. 修正 0. 事件财报 8/6→11/9✓ · 催化 Q3 财报 2026-11-09; FERC PJM 裁决; 新 hyperscaler 长约 X 本周 X 无 CEG 实质新信息: 泛 AI 电力名单转帖(SpaceX 20GW、CRASHING 名单列名); 情绪仍看多叙事, 无 PT 变动, 价格回落无人给具体归因。提示现价 253.45 贴近但未进买区(高于上沿 250 约 1.4%), 10-22 单日 -5.7% 无申报佐证。R:R 1.38 <1.5 不建仓, 等进 225-250。已低于董事买入/回购/二次发行成本线 9-10%。三闸未触发, 锚点沿用 10-17。关注 11-09 Q3、FERC PJM、剥离交割。
BE	1.27	$193.3 周-12.7%	买区$135-185 🔁本周重锚 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$115	不追>$275	half (1/2), only inside buy zone or on pullback; do not chase at $193
主锚 EV/Sales band (NG PE secondary) 估值 PE TTM NG PE ~74.1x · FPE FPE ~59.5x ($3.25); EV/S ~12.7x (FY26 $4.5B) · PEG年 ~0.49 (revenue basis) 分位 EV/S 12.7x ≈ ~20th pct of ~[9-27x] band R:R口径 (Base PT 293 - 193.30) / (193.30 - 115) = 99.7/78.3 = 1.27. Base PT = sell-side mean 292.86 (21 analysts). Conservative own PT 243 gives +0.6:1. Pullback to 185 = 1.54:1; 160 = 2.96:1; 135 = 7.9:1.（Base PT $293）重锚 Gates 1 (new 10-Q + guidance raise) and 2 (42 days) fired. Zone 130-185 to 135-185, floor 115 unchanged, no-chase 285 to 275. 内部人 🟡 No open-market buys. Latest: CCO Joshi 2026-10-01 SELL 8,437 @ $277.17 (10b5-1), far above current. No new Form 4/144 since 10/02. Directors' 9/30 DSU grants @ $276.98 are not open-market. 事件财报 10/22→2/4估 · 催化 Q4/FY26 earnings ~2027-02-04 (est); Oracle Jupiter delivery X Q3 read as beat-and-raise with quality discounts: OCF -$27M, PT cuts (Roth/JPM/BTIG). Dip buyers add near $190. Jupiter permitting still progressing; no new force majeure. 提示 Price $193.30 is 4.5% above the zone top ($185) and 68% above the $115 floor, so it is near the zone but not in it. R:R is 1.27:1, below 2:1. Plan to add in tranches at or below $185 rather than chase. Risks: OCF turned negative, contract assets $859M, top two customers at 43% and 26%, Oracle Jupiter delay. Watch for a first insider open-market buy now that the trading window is open.
ALAB	1.24	$257.16 周-10.0%	买区$225-255 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$142(bear EPS $4.00×35x; Amazon warrant strike $142.82 anchor)	不追>$400	starter (1/3); rubric half, manually cut (beyond rubric); half restored inside buy zone
主锚 pre-SBC NG Forward PE × FY27 NG EPS_mid $6.50 (2nd: EV/run-rate S) 估值 PE TTM NG 115x / GAAP 142x · FPE FY27 NG PE 39.6x (33.4-46.8x); SBC-burdened ~53.5x · PEG年 0.81 (annual); quarterly 0.34 (spuriously low) 分位 run-rate P/EPS×4 54.3x below own p10; EV/S 21.1x ~p20 (2.5yr band only) R:R口径 (Base $400 − 257.16) ÷ (257.16 − floor $142) = 142.84/115.16 = 1.24:1; $240 gives 1.63, $225 2.12; on sell-side PT $430 only 0.33. Stale if pre-earnings price-in.（Base PT $400）内部人 ⚪ No open-market buys since IPO; no new Form 4/144/13D/G since 10-09. Last: 10-01 Dyckerhoff 10b5-1 sale 12,499 sh @$376.06 (monthly mechanical). Chair Alba monthly 10b5-1; founders only RSU tax sells since late May. 事件财报 8/4→11/3✓ · 催化 2026-11-03 Q3 earnings (confirmed); Scorpio X ramp / Amazon warrant vesting X 10-22 -11.2% on optical/connectivity sector selloff, no company news; CRDO -10% 10-23; broke $282.5 floor, at 200DMA; Stifel PT $460 repeated; fear/dip-buy split. 提示 Price 0.9% above buy-zone top $255, near 200DMA ~$252.5; R:R 1.24 (<1.5), not yet a base. Earnings 11-03 (T-7, median move ~11.5%): max starter/half position pre-earnings. Risks: customer concentration (top3 86%), GM drift to ~72%, copper-to-optical, 5-33% sector beta. No-chase >$400 until Q4 guide ≥ ~$650M.
HOOD	1.21	$95.07 周-3.8%	买区$82-87 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$63(tail ~$45 in deep crypto-winter (30x x $1.50))	不追>$118	观望，不新增；回落 $82-87 = starter 1/3，$82-83 = half 1/2；已持仓者可参考减仓带 $105-112 兑现（合成=3，starter 档）
主锚 Forward PE x FY26E recurring EPS (mid $1.90); 2nd EV/Adj-EBITDA 估值 PE ~44.8x recurring TTM (GAAP ~42.1x) · FPE ~50.0x FPE mid (low 54.3x / high 45.3x); EV/Adj-EBITDA ~29.4x · PEG年 ~3.1-3.7 (revenue basis, stale); EPS basis N/M 分位 ~33rd pct of own band 30x-75x (short, crypto-cyclical) R:R口径 (134-95.07)/(95.07-63)=1.21:1, range 1.09-1.34; Base PT ~$130-138 from stockanalysis 9/23 consensus; below 1.5 gate. Buy-zone R:R itself 1.96-2.74.（Base PT $134）内部人 🟡 10/21 Bhatt Living Trust (Director) 10b5-1 sold 50,912 @$101.40 (~$5.16M), monthly cadence. Tenev trust 10/15 Form 144 327.5K+40.5K @~$101.08, Form 4 not yet filed. 10/5 Tenev 375K @~$113.7. No open-market buys. 事件财报 7/29→10/27✓ · 催化 10/27 Q3 FY26 earnings (after close); SEC tokenized-stock exemption rollout X DFSA (Dubai) approval 10/22 for retail trading, launch 2027; Rosenblatt Buy PT $135; pre-earnings positioning reset; PDT rule removal lifts volumes; no new negative company news. 提示 Price $95.07 is 9.3% above the zone top ($87), below the trim band ($105-112) and the no-chase level ($118). R:R 1.21 is under the 1.5 gate. The 42-day anchor age expires next week and gets re-checked at the 10/27 Q3 print (consensus EPS $0.55). Watch the Tenev trust Form 4 and crypto and activity trends. Floor is $63.
SOFI	1.17	$14.62 周+0.4%	买区$12.5-14.5 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$10	不追>$21	试探仓（≤1/3 的一半）；进买区 starter 1/3；财报前最多半仓
主锚 P/TBV 1.99x (TBVPS $7.34) vs 5y band; 2nd: Fwd PE FY27 估值 PE 33.5x (TTM GAAP) · FPE FY26 24.4x / FY27 17.8x (EPS $0.82) · PEG年约0.46 (全年) 分位 P/TBV 约p30 (10-05 为 p38, 5y median 2.37x) R:R口径 (20 - 14.615)/(14.615 - 10) = 1.17:1, base PT $20 (P/TBV p50 2.37x x TBVPS $8.5); below 1.5 so not enough for a core position; $14 gives 1.50, $13 gives 2.33, $12.50 gives 3.0.（Base PT $20）内部人 🟢 CEO Noto open-market buys (P): 2026-05-08 $15.73, 05-11 $16.00, 06-16 $18.06 (5 buys in 2026, $2.46M, never sold). EVP Keough 10b5-1 sale 10-22 10,203 sh @ $14.72 (routine monthly). 事件财报 7/29→10/27✓ · 催化 2026-10-27 Q3 财报(盘前); 2027-01 FY26+2027指引 X 10-22 SOFIE tokenized deposit (4.40% APY) launch, Prudential deal, SoFi Plus APY 4.70%; bulls cite ~23x EPS and TBV; Truist Hold PT $16 and RZLV rumor unverified; no change to buy zone. 提示 Price $14.615 sits 0.8% above the buy-zone top ($14.50), 4% of the 52w range, 19% below the 200DMA, and below every recent CEO buy price. R:R 1.17:1 is under 1.5, so only a probe position. Q3 earnings on 10-27 pre-market (consensus EPS $0.17); the last 3 reports all fell the next day (-15%, -9%, -6%). Risks: Muddy Waters short allegations, credit quality, private-credit buyers pulling back. Bear floor $10.
GOOGL	0.83	$320.21 周-6.0%	买区$298-312 🔁本周重锚 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$230(bear core EPS $11.5 x 20x; capex/depreciation worsens)	不追>$400	half 1/2 (tier unchanged; no adding before earnings)
主锚 Forward PE x FY+1 Core EPS; 2nd: own 5yr fwd PE band percentile 估值 PE 28.3x TTM core · FPE 26.0x (FY26 core $12.3); 24.4x on consensus $13.14 · PEG年 — 分位 5yr fwd PE band 17x-30x, ~69th percentile R:R口径 Base: to PT $395 = +23.4% vs down to floor $230 = -28.2% gives ~0.83:1. On consensus PT $430.51 (+34.4%) it is ~1.22:1. Below the 1.5 threshold for building a base position.（Base PT $395）重锚 Gate 2 (49 days > 42) re-review; 10Y +19bp, consensus EPS unchanged, band undrifted. Zone $298-312 / floor $230 / no-chase $400 kept; anchor date reset to 10-24. 内部人 ⚪ No open-market buys in window. Last small 10b5-1 sales: Walker 7/1 at $349.29, Saraci 449sh at $333.20 (7/29), Arnold 82-83sh at $333-340 (to 9/30). Shriram gift 10/13 (Code G). Nothing new since; GV sales are noise. 事件财报 7/22→10/28✓ · 催化 Q3 earnings 2026-10-28 AMC; capex guide (BofA expects $200-205B) X Price -5.98% on week, below 200DMA; chatter is technical and dip-buying. BofA sees capex raised to $200-205B; BMO PT $480. No 8-K-level news; valuation anchors unchanged. 提示 Price $320.21 is 2.6% above the zone top ($312) and has broken the 200DMA ($340.97). R:R is 0.83 base, still under 1.5. Limit orders under $312 can be staged, but don't add before the 10-28 AMC print. Key risk is the capex guide and negative FCF. No-chase level is $400, floor is $230.
MU	0.72	$877.55 周-0.1%	买区$450-680 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$220(严重 glut 约 $120-150)	不追>$1,255	观察（0仓）；3/6主分，R:R 0.72<1.5不建底，仅回撤进$450-680建starter
主锚深周期·存储：EV/EBITDA×mid-cycle EBITDA+净现金（PE×peak EPS 为陷阱 N/A）估值 PE 11.8x TTM（峰值陷阱） · FPE EV/EBITDA 8.62x 峰值年 / 4.4x 指引年化 / 14.4-18.8x mid-cycle；P/B 7.27x · PEG年 N/M 分位 EV/EBITDA 近年[5x-15x]带约第36分位（10/16口径）；52w价格分位~66.7% R:R口径 (1350-877.55)/(877.55-220)=472.45/657.55≈0.72:1；PT $1,350 为平台成立/FY27温和增长基准，沿用；地板放宽至 $400 约 0.99；<1.5 不建底（Base PT $1,350）内部人 🟡 窗口内无公开市场买入（Liu $337 买入在1/15，窗口外）。10/20申报 CTO DeBoer 10b5-1 卖28,545股@$900；CLO Ray 10/13-14 10b5-1 卖~6,328股@$914-947；CEO 8/21 10b5-1 @$959-990，均高于现价；10/13年度RSU归属为routine。事件财报 9/30→12/16估 · 催化 FQ1-27财报约2026-12-16（未确认）；客户capex周10/28-29 X 无一手新信息；CTO DeBoer webinar称美光跳过4F²直奔3D DRAM；Dell CEO内存4年问题；10/18 Binance永续盘MU约-7%闪崩；技术派看$900；Burry空头重提。提示现价$877.55高于买区上沿$680约29%，距地板$220仍远；R:R 0.72:1不建底，观察0仓。锚2026-10-10沿用，三闸未触发。风险：周期顶、峰值定价、应收$36.2B、CXMT供给叙事、台湾罢工待核。关注10/28-29客户capex与12/16财报。
SNDK	0.72	$1,238.03 周-4.7%	买区$810-975 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$400(中间层$690; 级联$245)	不追>$2,300	观察(3/8分starter-eligible, 但价格纪律未满足); 挂单等≤$975
主锚深周期NAND: EV/EBITDA×情景EBITDA(主锚), 情景EPS×周期倍数(第二法) 估值 PE TTM NG PE 17.5x (00: 18.3x); GAAP 17.6x · FPE 前瞻PE 6.9x(指引×4=$180)/6.2x(EPS_mid $200); EV/EBITDA 5.3x run-rate · PEG年 N/M 分位无历史band(上市18个月); peer周期顶EV/EBITDA 5–8x; 52w位置49.4% R:R口径 (1842-1238.03)/(1238.03-400)=0.72:1, base=去周期化兑现(8x run-rate EBITDA)$1,842, 真地板$400; 聚合PT均值$2,136.54(24家)则1.07:1。全线<1.5, 不建底。00 TL;DR仍写0.60-0.93(旧口径残留)。（Base PT $1,842）内部人 🟡 无公开市场买入。CEO Goeckeler 10b5-1两笔: 9/14 33,838股@$1,527.87, 9/17 33,841股@$1,574.21(约$105M); CLO Shek 10/01 600股@$1,734.94; 10/20 CLO代扣税322股@$1,365.38(Code F)。事件财报 8/5→10/29✓ · 催化 2026-10-29 Q1 FY27财报(共识EPS $46.06); $31.3B NBM条款披露 X 首度盘中跌破200DMA(未收盘跌破); 技术派分歧$1,275→1,000或反弹$1,290–1,420; 10/18永续合约抛压; Mizuho PT$2,050转述; 无公司特定公告。提示现价$1,238.03高于买区上沿$975 +27.0%, 距止盈档下沿$1,840为+48.6%; 低于不追价$2,300; 收盘贴200DMA($1,236.33, +0.1%), vs 50DMA -22.3%。R:R 0.72全线<1.5, 不建底。三闸未触发, 锚仍2026-10-03。盯10/29财报run-rate是否守住及NBM条款; 风险为涨价贡献2/3的峰值盈利逆转。
6981	0.65	JP¥6,275 周-9.1%	买区JP¥5,400-6,200 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板JP¥3,700(周期复刻情景 ¥2,670)	不追>JP¥9,500	starter (1/3)，仅在 ¥5,400–6,200 执行；财报前最多建一半
主锚周期型宽护城河: Fwd PE × FY2027 EPS_mid ¥241（第二法 EV/EBITDA）估值 PE 43.0x TTM (剔减损 42.7x) · FPE FY27 mid 26.0x; FY26 指引 33.8x / 共识 31.0x · PEG年 1.45 (FY27) 分位 PE/PB/EV-EBITDA 等约 5年 p95（未按新价重拟合） R:R口径 0.65:1 = 上行至 Base ¥7,950 (+26.7%) / 下行至地板 ¥3,700 (-41.0%)；vs 卖方 PT 均值 ¥10,414 为 1.61:1；¥5,400 处 1.50:1 (Base)（Base PT JP¥7,950）内部人 ⚪ 日本无 Form 4，董事无公开市场买卖。公司回购: 2026-08 ¥600億@¥7,353、09 ¥161億@¥7,184，均高于现价；10-17 后无新披露；累计 50.7%，剩余 ¥739億至 2027-01-29。事件财报 7/31→10/30✓ · 催化 10-30 FY26Q2 决算(14:00 JST); 11-30 IR Day X 中岛称将加码增产，金额 10-30 公布；GS 维持买入预期上修；散户偏负；X 无新证伪信号，10-30 决算为唯一催化。提示现价 ¥6,275 高于买区上沿 ¥6,200 仅 +1.2%，未进区，已跌破 200DMA ¥6,325。连续三周下跌，周跌 9.1%。10-30 财报是事件风险：指引隐含 Q2 OP ¥1,035億，共识 ¥1,310億，涨价未计入。估值仍约 5 年 p95，不追价 ¥9,500。须在 ≤¥6,200 执行，且财报前最多建 starter 的一半。
NBIS	0.59	$158.74 周-4.1%	买区$120-140 🔁本周重锚 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$85-110(地板区间 $85-110，中点 $97 用于 R:R 计算)	不追>$300	half(1/2)上限，但现价在买区外不新建；回落 <$140 恢复分批
主锚 EV/ARR (前营收/重资产成长), 辅 EV/Sales + ARR兑现度情景估值 PE N/M (亏损) · FPE EV/ARR-中点($8B) 5.33x; EV/Q2实际ARR 14.2x; EV/TTM销售 31.4x · PEG年 N/M 分位 EV/ARR 自身观测区间4.7-8.6x的~16th分位 (无5年band) R:R口径 Base: (195-158.74)/(158.74-97)=36.26/61.74≈+0.59:1; Bull $267 对应 +1.75:1。均 <1.5 门槛，不新建。地板用中点 $97。（Base PT $195）重锚闸①触发(10-22 $3.5B Citi 过桥6-K)重审：买区$120-140/地板$85-110/不追>$300/Base$195 数值维持不变，仅锚日更新为10-24 内部人 🟡 Director Grimme 10b5-1 计划内小额买入 10-15~10-20 共 743股/~$125k @ $164.62-169.99；Boynton 10-15 卖7,260股 ~$177.64；COO Nave 10-05 卖50万股 ~$235.53 ($117.8M)；Boroditsky 10-12 卖 @ $211.23 事件财报 8/12→11/10估 · 催化 Q3 FY26 财报 2026-11-10E(未确认); $3.5B Citi 过桥后续融资 X 10-22 $3.5B Citi 364天担保过桥6-K获X多源证实；Jensen GTC Berlin站台、2027产能可售转述未证实；疑似Aschenbrenner $13M期权纯猜测；叙事分裂融资压力vs产能。提示现价$158.74高于买区上沿$140 +13.4%，未进买区不追；跌破200DMA($175.89)-9.75%，52w位置37.7%，距ATH -47%。风险：$3.5B过桥364天到期(2027-10)需再融资、全资产担保、EV仍6/30口径。盯Q3财报(11-10E)、过桥提款额、ARR指引$7-9B。
FICO	0.49	$815.31 周+5.7%	买区$630-690 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$500(真熊 410, 尾部 280-340)	不追>$975	主分3/6; 现价出买区、R:R 0.49<1.5, 新资金不追, 等回买区
主锚 Forward PE x FY27E NG EPS (事件驱动: 宽→窄护城河收费站) 估值 PE TTM NG 20.5x · FPE 17.6x Base FY27E ($46.3) / 15.4x 共识 ($53.11) · PEG年 Base 口径 2.5 (09-25 版: 19.8x/8%); 卖方口径 0.73 分位 TTM NG PE 第0百分位 (5y band 最低21.8x之下) R:R口径 Base R:R=(971-815.31)/(815.31-500)=155.69/315.31=0.49; Bull PT 1554 -> 2.34; 对真熊410: Base 0.38 / Bull 1.82。低于1.5门槛。（Base PT $971）内部人 🟡 60天窗口内无公开市场成交; 最近一份Form 4为2026-08-25董事行权。近16个月零买入, 192笔卖出全在$1,228-2,173, 最近卖出Manolis 2026-07-29 @$1,400 (10b5-1); 现价低于全部卖出。事件财报 7/29→11/4✓ · 催化 2026-11-04 FQ4财报+首份FY27指引; FHFA bi-merge决定(时间未定) X 10-23盘后2027按揭评分版税持平$10(X转述,盘后约-8%至$750.78),印证Base; EFX称VantageScore $1锁至2028、>200家弃用FICO(未核); BMO重申PT $1,150。提示现价815.31高于买区上沿690约18.2%, 不追涨; 距地板500仍有-38.7%空间, R:R仅0.49。10-23盘后版税持平公告(X转述)盘后约751, 下周开盘或更低。风险: VS份额、bi-merge、2026-12-31契约降至4.0x。看11-04 FY27指引。内部人🟡。
AMD	0.39	$516.79 周-2.3%	买区$335-395 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$210	不追>$600	观察（现价高于买区上沿+30.8%）；回落至$335–395建1/3仓
主锚 Forward-PE × FY27 NG EPS (高增长半导体/AI放量) 估值 PE TTM NG PE ~89.7x · FPE 71.8x FY26 ($7.2) / 43.1x FY27 ($12) · PEG年 FY26 1.20 / FY27 0.78 (10-03版) 分位 5yr前瞻PE p90=47.0x；FY27 43.1x在p90下，FY26 71.8x远超顶 R:R口径 (635.5-516.79)/(516.79-210)=0.39:1 当前价；买区中值$365为1.75:1。Base PT=stockanalysis 50位median $635.5。上行+23.0% vs 下行-59.4%。（Base PT $635.5）内部人 🟡 无买入。10/15 Norrod 10b5-1卖17,262股@$540.70(filed 10/19)；9/10 Su 10b5-1卖60,000@$506.80；8/17 Grasby裸卖15,000@$514.91。7+月零买入，机械减持。事件财报 8/4→11/3✓ · 催化 11-03 Q3财报；MI450/Helios出货 X 周-2.26%，10/22单日-8%(AI capex担忧)后回稳；Stifel PT$700、TD Cowen $675转发；零售逢低买；无新看空事件。提示现价516.79高于买区上沿395约+30.8%，低于不追线600约-13.9%；R:R仅0.39:1，不追。三闸未触发，锚照抄(2026-10-03)。FY26 PE远超历史band顶，卖方EPS共识(FY27 $15.76)高于我方$12，11-03财报复核。10/22单日-8%显示高β，地板$210(-59%)。
TSM	0.36	$418.51 周+1.4%	买区$360-390 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$220(bear EPS $15 × ~14.7x；验证锚 2025-04 低点 $221.18（台海尾部）)	不追>$505	starter（1/3）；5/8，conviction 5；现价高于买区不追，等回$360-390
主锚盈利复利/宽护城河：Forward PE × FY26 EPS $17.5 估值 PE 26.9x (GAAP TTM, EPS $15.54) · FPE 23.9x FY26 (2027口径 ~18.6x) · PEG年 0.37 (假性偏低，减速陷阱) 分位 AI时代5yr band [18-30x] ~p50 (中位) R:R口径 (490-418.51)/(418.51-220)=71.49/198.51=0.36:1；Base PT $490=28.0x×$17.5；建仓区$375处0.74:1；低于1.5门槛，地缘尾部封顶（Base PT $490）内部人 ⚪ FPI盲区。窗口内仅VP小额开市买入(Fang 07-02 2,000股@$77.09/股，Tien 08-03 1,000股@$73.06，均低于现价)；10月ESPP配股、09-01年度限制性股权授予非信号；10-22 6-K持股全增无减持。事件财报 10/15→1/14估 · 催化 10月营收6-K(~11-10)；Q4财报2027-01-14(est) X 10-22单日-4.5%，AI capex见顶担忧+$6.3M看跌期权大单；高雄2nm厂事故传闻(未证实)；CoPoS龙潭新厂转引；无新基本面硬证据，三锚不变。提示现价418.51在买区上沿$390之上+7.3%，距不追线$505约-17%，R:R 0.36:1远低于1.5，不追，等回$360-390分批。三闸全false，三锚照抄(buyzone_anchored 2026-10-17)。Q3 beat&raise但股价回落；风险=台海尾部(地板$220)、AI capex见顶、高雄厂事故待核。
CRCL	0.34	$85.91 周+4.5%	买区$57-69 🔁本周重锚 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$45(severe情景高$30s; 52w低收$50.23)	不追>$130	观察(watch, 暂不建仓); 升starter条件: 回落至买区$57-69或Q3证实USDC止血
主锚 EV/S x TTM营收 $2.905B (1yr自身band), 第二法EV/Adj.EBITDA 估值 PE 48.3x (TTM GAAP, 仅参考) · FPE EV/S 7.51x; EV/Adj.EBITDA 34.0x · PEG年 N/M (仅参考) 分位 EV/S 1yr band(4.4x-12.5x)第~38分位; 52w ~38% R:R口径 (Base 100-85.91)/(85.91-45)=0.34:1, 文件称远低于2.5门槛; 带下沿$57-60处R:R~3.1:1; 卖方PT均值$106.98/中位$100.91（Base PT $100）重锚闸②(距锚42天)触发重审1yr EV/S band 4.4x-12.5x, 输入无变化, 买区57-69/地板45/不追130不变, 锚定更新为2026-10-24 内部人 🔴 10/21 CFO Fox-Geen 行权15,000股后公开市场卖出@$90.00(~$1.35M, 10b5-1=Y); 10/5 CEO Allaire卖62,264股均价~$83.58; 10/8 CPTO Chandhok卖26,668股@$79.59; 60窗口0买入事件财报 8/5→11/4✓ · 催化 11/4 Q3财报(USDC是否止血); CLARITY Act重启(无日期) X 本周无新SEC事实/无PT变动; 散户多头喊单(\"$250 stock on sale for $87\"); 10/22转述股东起诉WLF(Circle非被告,单源); 营收+7%而链上量+151%旧论点重提提示现价$85.91高于买区上沿$69约+24.5%, 远离地板$45; R:R 0.34:1远低于2.5门槛, 不追。USDC Q2首次失血、营收+7%增速放缓; CFO持续10b5-1卖出且已宣布离任。200DMA $86.16附近。看11/4 Q3财报USDC流通。
SPGI	0.34	$450.31 周+4.8%	买区$392-432 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$335(deep bear 285)	不追>$490	starter 1/3 (R:R 0.34 < 1.0); full below $397, half at $397-415
主锚 Forward PE x FY27E adj EPS; 2nd: SOTP 估值 PE — · FPE FY26E adj 25.5x / FY27E 22.4x (GAAP 27.3x) · PEG年 1.48 分位 FY26E GAAP 27.3x ≈ 5y p10 27.2x (min 23.7x, median 35.9x) R:R口径 (490-450.31)/(450.31-335)=39.69/115.31=0.34:1 on Base PT $490 (=SOTP $492); Bull PT $580 gives 1.12:1. Both below the 1.5 threshold. Drop is price-driven (prior 0.64).（Base PT $490）内部人 🟢 Open-market buys (Code P) in window: 2026-05-01 CEO Cheung 2,322 sh @ $429.93; 2026-05-04 Clay (SPDJI CEO) 2,500 @ $431.39; 2026-05-04 director Moritz 1,152 @ $434.03. Price is now above all three. No Form 4/144 since 10-05 (Ganesan RSU tax withholding, not a signal). No sells since 2025. 事件财报 7/28→10/27✓ · 催化 Q3'26 earnings 2026-10-27 07:15; FY27 guidance 2027-02 X Price +4.8% on the week. 8-K carries Mobility pro-forma EPS restatement. Value-camp "5-year low valuation" posts continue. A post warns Indices is only ~73% owned (CME ~27%), so the SOTP may be overstated. No new bearish items. 提示 Price 450.31 is 4.2% above the buy-zone top of 432 and 8.1% below the no-chase level of 490. It sits 34.4% above the 335 floor. None of the three gates fired, and the anchor is still 2026-09-26. R:R is 0.34, so hold at starter size and do not chase. Q3 earnings land 10-27, two trading days out. Watch Ratings issuance, Market Intelligence growth, and whether the SOTP needs a haircut for CME's ~27% of Indices.
QCOM	0.23	$175.91 周+2.2%	买区$125-140 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$105(卖方最低PT $100; 2022-23下行周期PE低点8-11x)	不追>$210	现价0; 进买区后starter 1/3; 财报前最多半仓
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS $10.2 + 5y band; FCF yield + SOTP 估值 PE 15.5x TTM NG (约p60-p65) · FPE 17.2x FY27 NG EPS $10.20 (带 15.3-19.6x) · PEG年 N/M (EPS 下降; 多头FY29路径≈0.92) 分位 TTM NG PE 约p60-p65 (5年band, 10-05锚定时p70) R:R口径 (192-175.91)/(175.91-105)=0.23:1; Base PT $192=FY28 EPS $12 x 16x; 远低于1.5不建仓; $140时1.49:1（Base PT $192）内部人 ⚪ 12个月零买入; 10-20 Palkhiwala卖2,500股@~$175.06(10b5-1月度定额,约$44万); 10-20年度股权奖励授予(代码A)。CEO限价卖单$180-$200未触发。全部例行。事件财报 7/29→11/4✓ · 催化 11-04盘后FY26Q4+Q1 FY27指引; CY2026底亚马逊首批出货 X 裁员传闻(Amon备忘录,二手,无8-K/WARN)、Arm案结辩数字(单帖低可信)、散户技术面; 无结论影响, 待11-04验证。提示现价$175.91合理偏贵, 高于买区$125-140, 距地板$105约40%; 不追>$210。EPS仍下行(Q4指引-28%, FY27共识-3%)。盯11-04财报手机见底与指引、裁员重组节省、Arm案裁定。
TWST	0.03	$139.92 周+5.4%	买区$70-85 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$43(无更深地板档;跌破$43且DSPS增速<20%则减仓)	不追>$200	现价0;进买区后starter 1/3(财报前最多半仓)
主锚 EV/TTM-Sales vs own 5y band (+卖方PT, 反向DCF) 估值 PE N/M (亏损) · FPE N/A; EV/FY26E-S 21.0x, EV/FY27E-S 17.9x · PEG年 N/M 分位 EV/TTM-S 5年第96分位(10/02口径28.7x,未重算) R:R口径 (143-139.92)/(139.92-43)=+0.03:1;base仅比现价高2%。Bull $254算1.18:1;Guggenheim $212算0.74:1。$96档0.89:1,$80档1.70:1,$70档2.70:1。（Base PT $143）内部人 🔴 近6月零公开市场买入。CEO Leproust 10b5-1 9/21卖35.7万股@$158,10/01-10/05卖@$188-207;CFO 10/09卖@$156.30;10/23 COO Finn Form 144拟售2,245股(~$134/股)。事件财报 8/3→11/13估 · 催化 11/13 FY26Q4+FY27首次指引(预估未确认); AI实验室合同 X Anthropic/Citrini蛋白设计实验(10/20)送211样本至Adaptyv与Twist湿实验,17个达标;叙事催化但金额约$1.4万,不构成合同验证,不改估值锚。提示现价$139.92高于买区上沿65%,比卖方PT中位$115高22%,R:R仅0.03:1,仍偏贵。反弹为情绪/动量驱动,估值锚未变(锚定10/05)。不追>$200。关注11/13 FY27指引(≥+25%且adj. EBITDA转正)、DSPS增速、CEO持续卖出、20%空头。
META	-0.03	$642.62 周-9.4%	买区$470-530 🔁本周重锚 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$400(extreme ~342)	不追>$725	Watch, no position (theoretical starter 1/3; stay flat; resume starter at $470-495)
主锚 Forward PE × FY26 adj. EPS (compounder / wide moat) 估值 PE TTM 21.9x GAAP / 20.8x adj · FPE 21.3x FY26 mid EPS $30.2; 18.6x FY27 cons $34.63 · PEG年 N/M (EPS growth ~flat) 分位 5yr fwd PE band [12-28x] ~58th pct R:R口径 File states R:R ~-0.03:1 at $642.62, i.e. (635-642.62)/(642.62-400); Base PT $635 is below price. Prior round ~-0.20:1. Price is 21.2% above buy-zone top. Sell-side PT avg $850 (42 analysts) is far above Base PT.（Base PT $635）重锚 Gate 1 (Q3 10-Q/8-K + Class C): zone 480-540 to 470-530, floor 415 to 400, no-chase 745 to 725, PT 650 to 635; EPS 30.0/31.0/33.0 to 29.0/30.2/31.5. 内部人 🟡 0 open-market buys in 60d. COO Olivan weekly 10b5-1 sales, latest 1,575 sh @ $707.20 (Form 4 filed 10/21), above current. Cox 40,000 sh @ $712.76 (9/21); Zuckerberg CZI entities 27,474 sh @ ~$777 (9/24). 事件财报 10/21→1/27估 · 催化 Q4 FY26 earnings est 2027-01-27; Class C dividend 2027-01-19 X Post-Q3 selloff (-7% on 10/22) on strong revenue but heavier AI spend; first negative FCF, record CDS spreads (unverified), Class C read as 2:1 split, Sundial acquisition rumor. 提示 Price $642.62 is 21.2% above the buy-zone top ($530) and 11.4% below no-chase ($725). Bear floor $400, and R:R is about -0.03:1 because the Base PT $635 is below price. Q3 FCF was -$2.12B (first negative), net cash is only ~$1.5B, and buybacks are $0. The Class C dividend opens an issuance channel (dilution not modeled). Class C takes effect 2027-01-19, after which per-share prices and EPS halve. Stay flat until price is in $470-495.
CRM	-0.28	$248.57 周+3.3%	买区$135-158 🔁本周重锚 🟡公允偏上 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$127	不追>$282	starter 1/3 (仅限建仓区内; 现价不动手, 已触及止盈线$248)
主锚成熟SaaS: forward EV/S主锚 + forward NG PE/FCF yield 估值 PE 29.1x (GAAP TTM, 经常性 EPS $8.54) · FPE fwd NG PE 18.13x (经常性 $13.71); fwd EV/S 5.02x · PEG年 ~1.02 分位 52w区间 83.3% 分位; EV/S 处历史带低-中段 R:R口径 (Base $214 − $248.57) ÷ ($248.57 − $127) = −34.57/121.57 = ~−0.28:1 (上轮 −0.23); Base 低于现价故为负, 纯因价格上行（Base PT $214）重锚闸①(Braze重大M&A 8-K)触发,复核后数值不变: 买区$135-158/地板$127/不追$282; buyzone_anchored=2026-10-24 内部人 🟢 董事David Kirk 2026-09-18 公开市场买入4,176股 @ $239.33 (~$100万, 无10b5-1)。Conway 9/4 卖 4,500股 @ $260.61 (高于现价,单人)。Harris 10/22 期权行权+代扣税(Code M/F), 无信号。事件财报 8/26→12/2估 · 催化 Q3 FY27财报~2026-12-02(未确认); Braze收购交割(FY28内) X Braze $5.66B现金收购(10/20)与8-K一致; CRM当日盘中约-1%; 技术面10/19放量跳空后回吐; 无与论点矛盾的硬数据, 小型bolt-on不改买区。提示现价$248.57高出买区上沿$158约57%, 已触及止盈$248(+0.2%), 距不追$282约13.4%, R:R为负。空仓者等回踩$135-158, 持仓者可逢高部分兑现。关注Q3 cRPO/有机增速能否再加速(cRPO +14%持平), Braze交割后净债+~$5.7B摊薄利润率; 卖方PT $281.08仅参考。

⛔ 不追区（11家 · 按收益风险比↓ 排）

Ticker	收益风险比	现价	买区	地板	不追	仓位
SNOW	0.13	$325.43 周+6.1%	买区$210-250 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$170(floor = growth fades to ~20% x 7.0x; Q1 pre-earnings close $175, buyback avg $179)	不追>$295	starter 1/3 (only inside buy zone; no shares at current price)
主锚 EV/NTM-Sales 3y band (primary) + P/FCF & FCF-SBC 估值 PE N/M (GAAP loss, TTM EPS ≈ -3.20) · FPE EV/NTM-S 15.9x; fwd NG PE ~99-105x (FY28 mid $3.10) · PEG年 N/M (annual fwd PEG ~3.6-3.9, ref only) 分位 EV/NTM-S 3y band ~p86 R:R口径 Base $346 (NTM $9.5B x 12.8x) vs $325.43 = +6.3% up / -47.8% to floor $170 = 0.13:1; vs consensus mean $428.53 = 0.66:1; gate3 not triggered, anchor unchanged（Base PT $346）内部人 🟡 Zero open-market buys since 2024. ~$1.1B sold 2026-02..10, mostly 10b5-1: Slootman 10-19 300K sh @ $316.43 (~$94.9M); Dageville 10-21 50K @ $321.74 (~$16.1M). CEO/CFO no sales. 事件财报 9/2→12/2估 · 催化 2026-12-02 Q3 FY27 (est); ~2026-11 BUILD X No new fundamentals beyond SEC; Slootman $94.9M 10b5-1 sale main talking point; Grok-4.7/GLM-5.3 on Cortex; sentiment flat after +6.1% week. 提示 $325.43 is +10.3% above the no-chase line $295 and +30% above the buy-zone top $250. R:R is 0.13:1. Wait for the 12-02 Q3 print: product revenue at least $1.59B and NRR at least 126%. Risks: RPO growth slowing (+42% to +30%), gross margin guide cut to 74%, and a big post-earnings move. Insider sales are ongoing, mostly under 10b5-1 plans.
MA	0.08	$623.6 周+1.0%	买区$445-498 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$438(22x前瞻PE，−29.8%)	不追>$557	观察（主分3/6 starter档，但现价高于买区，等<$498再建底）
主锚前瞻PE×FY+1调整后EPS(~$19.96)；第二法5yr band+回购收益率估值 PE 34.0x GAAP / 32.9x 调整后 · FPE 31.2x 前瞻调整后PE · PEG年 1.82 分位 5yr前瞻PE band 28-38x下半部；52w价格分位~94.3% R:R口径文件写0.08:1：上行至32x $639=+2.4%，下行至地板$438=−29.8%；PT为32x止盈参考档，远低于1.5门槛（Base PT $639）内部人 🟡 10-16 CFO Ling Hai行权4,317股@$112.31并卖出@$620.00(~$2.68M，10b5-1，计划2025-12-10)；10-09董事Genachowski卖741股@$585-590；8月CEO等10b5-1减持；窗口内0笔公开市场买入事件财报 7/30→10/29✓ · 催化 Q3 FY26财报2026-10-29(confirmed)；稳定币/BVNK/SoFi落地 X 10-22/23创ATH后X以追涨/长持帖为主(TheLongInvest、Munger 6 stocks)；10-19发稳定币风险情报工具；情绪正面且拥挤，无新负面基本面。提示现价623.60高于不追线557达12.0%、高于买区上沿498达25.2%，距ATH 632.86仅−1.5%，距32x止盈档仅+2.4%。R:R 0.08:1远低于1.5，不追高。10-29财报是下一个重估点，锚2026-09-12下轮将触发复核。内部人为10b5-1例行减持，中性。
600674	0.06	¥17.22 周-1.0%	买区¥14.8-15.4 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板¥12.8(52w-low 13.72；2023年低点12.10；两法均值11.9)	不追>¥16.6	half(1/2)目标仓，等≤15.4再建，现价0仓观察
主锚投资控股型水电：5年PE_TTM band分位+股息率底；第二法SOTP 估值 PE 17.0x (TTM EPS 1.013) · FPE 2026E 16.6x (共识1.0398) / 2027E 15.4x (共识1.1149) · PEG年 N/M (archetype弃用；参考≈2.7) 分位 PE_TTM 5年band约70分位；PB约50分位；52w 92分位 R:R口径 (17.5-17.22)/(17.22-12.8)=0.06:1，不建底；Base PT 17.5=中位16.4x×2027E 1.108(18.2)与股息率3.2%法(17.3)均值。15.4处0.81:1，14.8处1.35:1，14.4处1.9:1。（Base PT ¥17.5）内部人 🟢 控股股东四川能源发展集团第二轮增持(2026-07-21起)：截至10-20累计401.05万股/6484.75万元/均价≈16.17(10-21公告)，仅达2亿下限32%；零减持，董监高零持股。现价高于其成交价，仅弱参考。事件财报 10/14→4/1估 · 催化 2026-10-29临时股东会；2027-01-20增持期满 X X上川投零个股讨论；2组query共3条均为2016/2024旧帖噪音，窗口内无新帖。共识FY26E 1.0398/FY27E 1.1149；近1月9家评级(7买入2增持)。提示现价17.22高于不追线16.6约3.7%，距买区上沿15.4约+11.8%，逼近止盈带17.3-17.5，R:R仅0.06:1，不建底。雅砻江Q3电量+19%已计入TTM EPS。风险：雅砻江分红下调、来水、电价。盯10-29临时股东会和增持进度。
DDOG	0.05	$269.65 周+9.1%	买区$165-185 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$125	不追>$245	starter (1/3)——现价不建，仅回落至 $165–185 执行
主锚 EV/NTM 营收 (高增长消费计费 SaaS)，第二法 EV/FCF 估值 PE N/M (GAAP PE ~560x) · FPE EV/NTM 营收 19.8x；Fwd PE FY26 NG 106.6x / FY27 90.8x · PEG年 N/M (季度 5.3-6.5，仅参考) 分位 19.8x 超出 2023+ band 最大值 18.0x；EV/FCF p93+ R:R口径 (277−269.65)/(269.65−125)=0.05:1；Base PT $277 无新财报未改，现价仅低于 PT 2.7%，几乎无上行空间。（Base PT $277）内部人 🟡 零公开市场买入；约90%为10b5-1减持。最近 10-07 CTO Lê-Quôc 10b5-1 卖53,912股@$271.40–280.43(~$14.75M)，133万股计划仍在供给；10-17 以来零新申报。事件财报 8/6→11/4✓ · 催化 11-04 Q3财报(盘前)；Upwind ~$40亿并购传闻(未证实) X Upwind $40亿出价传闻(The Information，未证实)；Bernstein升Outperform PT$350、BofA PT$335；本周反弹无公司披露的基本面数据。提示现价 $269.65 高于买区上沿 +45.8%、不追线 $245 +10.1%，EV/NTM 19.8x 超自身 band 最大值，R:R 仅 0.05。最大客户 Q3 起缩量；11-04 财报验证剔除后增速。重锚三闸未触发，锚仍为 10-01。
600900	0.02	¥29.45 周+0.2%	买区¥23.5-25.3 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板¥22.9(17.5x×bear EPS 1.31；股息率4.0%；同2024-01低点22.88)	不追>¥27.9	现价0仓位、不新建；目标half(1/2)；回落<=25.6起starter 1/3，进入买区23.5-25.3补至1/2
主锚 5年PE_TTM band分位 + 股息率底(第二法P/OCF+DDM) 估值 PE 19.90x · FPE 2026e 21.7x (mid EPS 1.36) / 2027e 20.2x · PEG年 N/M 分位 PE_TTM 5年第39分位/3年第29.5分位；PB 85.5分位 R:R口径 (29.6-29.45)/(29.45-22.9)=0.02:1；含12个月股息0.95则0.17:1；远低于1.5门槛，需回落至<=25.6。PT=20.5x×2027e 1.46与DDM均值。EPS为自建估算，卖方未更新。（Base PT ¥29.6）内部人 ⚪ 三峡集团增持已完成(2025-08-23~2026-08-22，44.99亿，均价27.84)，窗内无新增减持/增持公告；EB2换股被动减持-317万股(06-30至08-22)；增持完成后6个月内(至2027-02)不得减持。事件财报 8/31→10/31✓ · 催化 2026-10-31三季报；2026-12中期分红方案 X 10-24: 窗内(10-16起)2个query均0条相关新帖，仅旧帖/秘鲁Luz del Sur旧闻；无增量信号，不改买点/仓位。提示现价29.45高于不追线27.9约5.6%、高于买区上沿16.4%，R:R仅0.02:1，不是建仓位置。锚定2026-10-17(Q3发电量-14.89%致EPS mid 1.48到1.36)。10-31三季报：Q3归母<115亿或Q4发电指引再降则需再下修。
MSFT	0.01	$524.51 周-0.9%	买区$360-390 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$315(thesis-break floor ~17.5x x bear EPS ~$18.1; 52w low $352.83 above it)	不追>$485	half (净 half; 内部人 -半档; 财报前最多半仓; 现价不建仓/不追)
主锚 Forward PE x FY27 NG EPS (5yr fwd band 22-36x); 2nd: EV/EBITDA fwd 估值 PE 29.2x GAAP TTM (NG 30.3x) · FPE ~26.9x fwd (FY27 NG EPS ~$19.5); EV/EBITDA fwd ~17.5x · PEG年 ~2.1 分位 fwd PE ~p36 of own 5yr band; 52w 90.1% R:R口径 (526.5-524.51)/(524.51-315)=1.99/209.51≈+0.01:1; base=27x x $19.5. Consensus PT median $600 -> ~0.36:1, mean $597.76 -> ~0.35:1 (36 analysts). Buy zone R:R: $390 ~1.8:1, $375 ~2.5:1, $360 ~3.7:1.（Base PT $526.5）内部人 🟡 No open-market buys in window (last buy: Stanton 2/18 @397.35, outside). Non-10b5-1 sells: Numoto 08-04 4,810 @496.48, Althoff 08-05 10,000 @487.89 (both below current). 10b5-1: Hood 10-13 7,305 @~545.43; Nadella 09-01 86,525 @501.46. No new Form 4 this week. 事件财报 7/29→10/28✓ · 催化 10-28 FY27 Q1 earnings (EPS est $4.71); 11-17 Ignite X No EPS/guidance data. Telegraph-sourced rumor MSFT exits UK Nscale DC deal (unconfirmed); Citi capex $5.35T 2027-30; Nadella Project Perception. Gate 1 not triggered. 提示 Price $524.51 is +8.15% above the $485 no-chase line and +34.5% above the buy-zone top, so R:R is near zero. Already-held positions can hold; new buyers wait for $360-390. Earnings 10-28 is T-3, so the pre-earnings half-position cap applies. Watch whether Azure holds 44-45% guidance, Copilot price cuts diluting ARPU, and the Nscale exit rumor. The 42-day re-anchor gate is at its boundary and will trigger next round.
CME	-0.12	$305.71 周+4.0%	买区$210-225 🔁本周重锚 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$200(17x × Bear EPS $11.8；比52w低$218.31再低8.4%)	不追>$285	half (1/2)，仅在$225以下分批；当前不建仓
主锚历史PE band分位+股息率底（宽护城河低增长收租股）估值 PE 25.1x TTM · FPE 24.8x FY26e ($12.34); 23.5x FY27e · PEG年 2.5 (仅参考，stockanalysis 3.32) 分位 5年TTM PE约20-31x，现处中枢25-30x下沿 R:R口径 (292.94-305.71)/(305.71-200)=-0.12；PT=S&P/stockanalysis共识$292.94(Hold,16位)低于现价；@225为2.7:1；止盈价$308（Base PT $292.94）重锚闸①(Q3 8-K+10-Q)+闸②(42天)触发：买区205-220→210-225，地板190→200，不追275→285，止盈308不变内部人 🔴 2026-10-22 董事Gepsman卖400股@302.50(非10b5-1)；9/14 Cook卖[email protected]；9/10 Duffy卖15,[email protected]；5/18 Duffy卖35,[email protected]；仅Shepard 9/25小额买入292股@268.76(Code P)。公司Q3回购[email protected] 事件财报 10/21→2/3估 · 催化 CME v. CFTC standing裁决；12月可变股息宣布；10/28 FOMC X Q3双beat转述(营收$1.74B、adj EPS $3.02)；CFTC称CME无诉讼资格(standing)；商品交易所联名要求否决Kalshi原油永续；情绪中性偏正面，估值争论PT低于现价。提示现价305.71高于不追价285达+7.3%，距止盈308仅-0.7%，高于买区上沿225达+35.9%；R:R为负，不建仓，已有仓位在308附近减仓。风险：FMX/perps竞争、CFTC诉讼standing被驳回；留意12月可变股息。下次财报日(2027-02-04)为按FY25推测，未确认。
PFE	-0.18	$30.03 周+1.5%	买区$21.5-23.5 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$19(Bear EPS $2.25 x 8.5x; cross-check cut dividend $1.25 / 6.5% yield)	不追>$29.2	Starter (1/3), only at <=$23.5; currently watch, no entry; insider +0.5
主锚 Patent-cliff pharma: own historical PE band + dividend-yield band; FCF/dividend coverage second 估值 PE GAAP 39.5x (noise) / adj 9.8x · FPE FY26 10.1x (guide mid 10.4x) / FY27 10.4x / NTM 10.3x · PEG年 N/M (neg growth); PEGY FY27 ~2.6 分位 Post-cliff PE band p77 / 3y yield band p40 (at 10-06, not recomputed, higher now) R:R口径 (28-30.03)/(30.03-19) = -0.18:1; incl. 12-mo dividend $1.72 = -0.03:1. Price above Base PT $28, so R:R negative.（Base PT $28）内部人 🟢 Aug 2026 open-market buys, non-10b5-1: CEO Bourla 38,000 sh @ $26.34 (filed 08-12); directors Blaylock 39,231 @ $25.46 and Buckley 37,632 @ $25.52 (08-05); total ~$2.95M. No new trades since; price now 14-18% above buys. 事件财报 8/4→11/3✓ · 催化 Q3 earnings 2026-11-03; FY27 guidance + dividend mid-Dec 2026 X No fundamental news. ESMO: 3SBio PD-1/VEGF PF-08634404 1L NSCLC ORR up to 82.5% (X, unverified). Technical chase posts (target $37); "Pfizer" query is COVID noise. 提示 Price $30.03 is 27.8% above zone top $23.5 and 2.8% above the $29.2 no-chase line; above Base PT $28 so R:R is negative. 52w range 94%, two-year high. Do not buy. Watch the 11-03 Q3 report and mid-Dec FY27 guidance (EPS >= $2.90, dividend raise). Dividend flat for the first time, coverage ~1.1x. Anchor dated 2026-10-06, unchanged.
AAPL	-0.21	$347.73 周+1.2%	买区$230-255 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$190	不追>$335	观察（0）：总分3，R/R倒挂不建仓
主锚盈利复利/宽护城河：Forward PE × FY27E EPS $9.50，第二法 FCF/回购收益率估值 PE 39.92x TTM ($8.71) · FPE 39.07x FY26E ($8.90) / 36.60x FY27E ($9.50) · PEG年 FY27 PEG ~4.4-4.5 (FY26 ~2.0) 分位 FY27E ~p91 (估计), 5yr band 22-37x; FY26E 略超带顶 R:R口径 (315-347.725)/(347.725-190) ≈ -0.21:1 倒挂（上轮 -0.19:1，仅因价格上行）；@$235 为 1.78:1；@$255 为 0.92:1。PT $315 = 33x FY27E。（Base PT $315）内部人 🟡 无公开市场买入。均为10b5-1：Newstead 10-22申报卖2,399@$339.62；Parekh 10-19申报卖1,392@$345.05；Borders卖1,280@$345.40；Cook 10-01卖191,753@$331-334。Levinson 5月裸卖30万股@$284-311。事件财报 7/30→11/2✓ · 催化 11-02 FY26Q4财报（盘后，已确认）；iPhone Duo 首批销量/FY27Q1指引 X iPhone Duo 10-23开售，Cook发推庆祝；Gurman称评测近年最严厉之一，铰链/屏幕碎裂报道；AAPL重夺全球市值第一；约11x销售额史上最高估值仍是多头负担。提示现价高于不追线$335 +3.8%、高于PT$315 +10.4%、距买区上沿$255 +36.4%，52w分位99.5%，临近ATH。三闸未触发，锚维持2026-09-12；下轮闸②必触发。11-02财报看服务增速是否跌破10%、memory成本与FY27Q1指引。
SPCX	-0.26	$147.49 周+1.0%	买区$74-94 🔁本周重锚 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$31	不追>$135	当前0仓观察；R:R闸门否决；回$74–94 starter 1/3，$62以下 half
主锚 SOTP + EV/FY27E-Rev 带 + 反向DCF闸估值 PE N/M (GAAP TTM 净亏；EV/TTM-Rev 60.9x) · FPE EV/FY27E-Rev(mid $105B) 18.6x；EV/Q3年化营收 33.5x · PEG年 N/M 分位自有IPO窗口分位 41.9%（上市93个交易日，无历史band） R:R口径 (117−147.49)÷(147.49−31)=−0.26:1（负，上周−0.29:1）；PT=(base SOTP $78 + bull中值$155)÷2≈$117；$74处1.00:1，$62处1.77:1。（Base PT $117）重锚闸①(Q3 10-Q/8-K/S-8)触发：SOTP-base $72→$78，买区$68–87→$74–94，地板$29→$31，PT$112→$117；不追$135不动内部人 🟡 COO Shotwell 2026-09-22 10b5-1 行权即卖 342,170股 @均价$153.57（$52.6M），高于现价；Gracias 9/15 in-kind分配及9/30 Form 4/A非卖出；自10/10起Form 3/4/4A/144零新增；无公开市场买入。事件财报 10/20→2/17估 · 催化 $40B债务融资定价；12/8主180天解禁；2027-02-17 Q4财报 X 财报后多头占主，卖方上调PT（JPM $500、BofA $275、Goldman $245）；空头聚焦Customer B集中与短约算力；$40B新债利率7.75–8.3%、10/22解禁致−9.0%。提示现价$147.49高于买区上沿+56.9%、较base SOTP +89.1%，高于不追$135线+9.3%，低于止盈$160+ −7.8%。Q3大幅beat已上调锚但未平移到现价，R:R为负不建仓。风险：Customer B占营收34.5%（两大客户51.1%）、90天可解约；$40B新债成本上行；12/8主解禁；FCF约−$10B/季。关注12月$100B run-rate验证。
CRWD	-0.46	$257.57 周+13.3%	买区$113-125 ⛔不追区 ⚠️ 现价已出买区,R:R已被上涨吃掉	熊市地板$75(上方有回购成本$88-91、52w低$85.68)	不追>$180	starter(1/3)目标; 现价$257.57一股不建, 仅回落$113-125执行
主锚再加速SaaS: EV/NTM-Sales band(主)+EV/TTM-FCF(二) 估值 PE N/M (TTM GAAP ~6,000x) · FPE EV/NTM-S 39.7x; Fwd PE FY27 205x / FY28 160x (参考) · PEG年 5.8 (全年前瞻, 极贵) 分位 EV/NTM-S 5y ~99+分位(贴max 39.9x); EV/FCF 165x>p90 R:R口径 (174-257.57)/(257.57-75) = -0.46:1; Base PT $174 (12m); 卖方中位PT $245 口径 -0.07:1; Bull $311 +0.29:1; 现价高于Base PT故为负（Base PT $174）内部人 🔴 Kurtz 10b5-1 持续卖出: 10-15~22 共6万股 @ $228-238 (低于现价); 董事Flower 10-16 9,896股 @ $230.05 (10b5-1); 5个月零公开市场买入, 累计净卖~$6.7亿; CFO 09-24 卖48万股事件财报 8/26→12/1估 · 催化 12-01 Q3 FY27(预估未确认); 2027-03 FY28首次指引 X 10-23 +8.2%: Evercore点名网安预算回暖+PHP漏洞+Kurtz CNBC警告入侵增多; 情绪事件驱动追涨, 无NNARR/指引证据, 部分大V减仓; 不平移买区提示现价257.57高于不追线180(+43%)、买区上沿125(+106%)、卖方中位PT 245(+5%); EV/NTM-S 39.7x贴5y最高。闸③复核锚未变, 不因反弹上移买区。内部人持续10b5-1卖出。关注12-01 NNARR vs ~$347M、FY28 NNARR指引是否>=25%(此前简报给20%+)。

🎰 题材无边际（8家 · 收益风险比基于远期假设，可靠性低于盈利股 · 仅小仓投机）

Ticker	收益风险比	现价	买区	地板	不追	仓位
ASTS	9.6	$39.79 周-2.1%	买区$49-58 🎰题材无边际 ⚠️ 现价已跌破/位于熊市地板带,R:R分母为负或趋零(N/M)	熊市地板$36-42(L1 $42 / L2 $36 / L3 现金底 $7（理论极限）)	不追>$110	starter（≤1/3），现价不建议新增
主锚前营收/故事股：52w band+卖方PT band+VPF collar+EV/现金跑道估值 PE N/A (pre-profit) · FPE N/A；EV/Sales FY26e ~112x (EV ~$19.60B) · PEG年 N/A 分位 52w收盘区间位置1.1% ($38.77-$133.09) R:R口径诚实 R:R 对 L2 $36 = (76-39.79)/(39.79-36)=36.21/3.79≈9.6；分母趋零伪影，不可排序。点 L1 $42 分母为负不可用。base ~$76 为卖方聚合中点。（Base PT $76）题材档 pre-revenue/pre-profit 故事股；EV/Sales FY26e ~112x (>50x) 内部人 🟢 2026-08-31 董事Cisneros公开市场买入10,822股@$57.22（$619K，非10b5-1）。9/16 COO Gupta卖12,000@$58.89、CTO Yao卖40,000@$58.93；10-17 CAO Bernal仅代扣税(F)。低位无新买卖。事件财报 8/10→11/9估 · 催化 Q3财报2026-11-09(估计)；诉讼领投原告截止11-13；BB14-16发射 X 官方多条利好PR（欧洲MNO、服务就绪、60+gateway）；Scotia上调PT$55.70；散户多空两极；BB14-16发射传闻未证实；价格与利好背离。提示现价$39.79低于买区下沿-18.8%、L1 $42之下-5.3%、L2 $36之上+10.5%；52w新低区(10-22收盘$38.77)。R:R 9.6为伪影。关注Q3财报(11-09估计)发射时间表、增发风险、SpaceX竞争；破L2需复核。
ARM	1.99	$210.33 周-7.7%	买区$166-221 🎰题材无边际	熊市地板$120(52w low zone ~$100-105 (close-based low $104.58))	不追>$442	Watch to starter candidate; 4 pts, starter (1/3), staged not all at once, no add below 200DMA
主锚 Forward P/S band (FY27E rev ~$5.95B); AGI CPU option pricing archetype 估值 PE GAAP TTM N/M (SBC distorts; file 234.8x @10/16 price) · FPE Fwd P/S 38.1x; FPE neutral 104.1x (NG EPS $2.02) · PEG年 N/M (weak, not used) 分位 Fwd P/S 28th pctile of band 21-82x (since IPO) R:R口径 (Base PT 390 - 210.33)/(210.33 - 120) = 1.99:1, over 1.5 threshold. Base PT 390 = FY27E rev 5.95B x ~62-65x + AGI option premium; consensus mean 290.71 would give far lower R:R.（Base PT $390）题材档 Forward PE ~104.1x (>100x); GAAP TTM PE far above 100x 内部人 🟡 CFO Jason Child 10b5-1 sales: 2026-08-27 @ $255.33 and 2026-09-21 @ $300.00 (Form 4 filed 9/23, 10,400 ADS). No new Form 4/144 since; 0 open-market buys in window. Price is below both sale prices. 事件财报 7/29→11/4✓ · 催化 Q2 FY27 earnings 2026-11-04; Qualcomm judge ruling on 5-yr royalty suspension X No attributable new fundamentals; Qualcomm verdict recap (royalty suspension ~$1.5B pending judge), BofA agentic CPU ~26M CY30 (single source), technical buy-zone calls. 提示 Price 210.33 is inside the 166-221 buy zone (4.8% below the upper edge), well above floor 120 and far below no-chase 442. R:R 1.99 clears the 1.5 bar. Price is below the 200DMA 226.07 and the 50DMA 262.40. Watch the 11/4 Q2 earnings and the judge's ruling on the Qualcomm royalty suspension. The anchor is re-reviewed next week.
AEHR	1.05	$55.31 周-8.7%	买区$44-50 🎰题材无边际	熊市地板$27(一级地板 $44（thesis 在、倍数回归 p75）；二级熊市地板 $27)	不追>$120	观察（目标档 starter 1/3，仅在 $44–50 买区内执行）；现价不建仓
主锚 EV/S x FY28E 营收（自身前瞻 band）+ FY28 NG PE x peer 41x 估值 PE N/M（TTM NG PE ~3000x；GAAP 亏损） · FPE FY27 NG PE 70-77x / FY28 NG PE 40x；FY28 EV/S 8.3x、FY27 EV/S 12.5x · PEG年 0.54（FY28 前瞻，唯一可读）分位 FY28 前瞻 EV/S 约第58分位；FY27 EV/S 约第77分位；TTM EV/S 约第90分位 R:R口径 (Base $85 − $55.31)/(现价 − 地板 $27 = $28.31) = 1.05:1；卖方 PT 中位 $120 为 2.54:1，Bull $145 为 3.16:1；Base 口径 <1.5 不建底仓；买区上沿 $50 时 1.52:1。（Base PT $85）题材档 TTM NG PE ~3000x（>100x）；FY27 PE 70-77x；TTM EV/S 35x（<50x）；FY26 GAAP 亏损，盈利刚转正内部人 🟡 2026-04 与 08 两轮 13 名董事/高管全部非 10b5-1 卖出约 $62.5M，零买入。CEO 04-14 @$70.58、08-13 @$130.84。07-16 Scott @$82.13。08 月后停手。10-20 Posedel 行权 18,000 股 @$1.77（code M，非买入）。事件财报 7/14→11/2✓ · 催化 2026-11-02 盘后 FY27Q1 财报；顶级 AI 处理器 pilot 转 HVM 订单 X 10-22 单日 −12.9% 收 $55.65，X 称板块去杠杆与 TER Titan HP 竞争担忧；多头强调指引未变、backlog $100.6M；无新 SEC 事实，买区不动。提示现价 $55.31 高于买区上沿 $50 约 10.6%，较 10-02 峰值 $107.21 回落 48%。低于 200DMA 约 25%。Base R:R 1.05 小于 1.5，不建底仓。11-02 财报在 T-6，历史次日中位约 ±20%。不追 >$120。风险包括客户集中、订单块状、稀释，以及内部人全员卖出。
NVTS	0.96	$8.38 周+0.5%	买区$5.5-7 🎰题材无边际	熊市地板$4.5(Bear 内在价约 3.25；地板按 8x EV/S + 现金底约 1.6/股)	不追>$17	观察 / 0 仓（合成 1 分）
主锚情景 EV/Sales + 现金/股底 + 卖方PT（亏损故事股）估值 PE N/M (亏损) · FPE EV/S TTM 49.7x；Fwd EV/S(FY26e) 38.2x；P/S 61.5x · PEG年 N/M 分位无自身历史 band；52w 区间分位 5.6% R:R口径文件公式 (12.1−8.34)/(8.34−4.5)=3.72/3.88≈0.96:1，PT 为 12 月混合目标（Base 7.35 / Bull 13.10 混合）；用 10-16 价 8.34 计算，低于 2.5x 门槛；跌到 7 则 2.04:1（Base PT $12.1）题材档亏损故事股，EV/S 49.7x（TTM），P/S 61.5x，均 >50x 级别且 EPS<0 内部人 ⚪ 窗口内无公开市场买卖；仅 2026-08-26 申报的 7 份董事年度 RSU（Code A，$0，授予日 07-22）。最近裸卖 2026-05-29 Ranbir Singh 3.72M @ $29.29（窗口前），信号过期。事件财报 7/27→11/3✓ · 催化 11-03 Q3 财报；2027 NVIDIA 800V/XPU ramp X 10-21 发布 2,300V SiCPAK SiC 模块及 NVIDIA 24kW 板转述、荐股清单；无订单、无 8-K、无内部人买卖、无 PT 变动，无增量基本面。提示现价 8.38 高出买区上沿 7 达 19.7%，在 Base 约 7.35 上方，距地板 4.5 下行 46%。R:R 0.96:1 低于建仓门槛。三闸均未触发，锚仍为 2026-10-10。11-03 财报后历史波动常超 8%（Q2 为 −17%）。风险包括 ATM 稀释、Wolfspeed 诉讼、Claros 整合。
RXRX	0.47	$3.7 周+6.9%	买区$2.3-2.7 🎰题材无边际	熊市地板$1.78	不追>$4.15	starter 1/3(合成分3/6), 但现价不在买区, 观望等回落$2.30-2.70
主锚前营收biotech: 净现金/股+平台期权EV分层, 第二法EV/现金梯估值 PE N/M (亏损) · FPE N/M; EV $1.569B, EV/净现金 2.17x, EV/Sales TTM ~29x · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w区间分位 24.9% (距高 -41.2%) R:R口径 (4.60-3.70)/(3.70-1.78)=0.90/1.92≈0.47:1; PT=平台EV $2.14B+形式净现金, 形式股本619.4M; 买区上沿2.70处2.07:1, 下沿2.30处4.42:1（Base PT $4.6）题材档 Pre-profit clinical-stage biotech; TTM revenue $54.9M, net loss, no PE; P/S ~36x at older price 内部人 🟡 无新申报(10/17-10/24)。最近: 10/6 董事Borgeson卖50,000股@$4.84、Hershberg行权后卖25,000股@$5.00(均10b5-1,高于现价)。零公开市场买入; 增发lock-up至约11/29。事件财报 8/5→11/4估 · 催化 11/2 CGA-IGC REC-4881数据; 11/4 Q3财报(预估) X 本周+6.8%为增发后技术性回升; 无新券商评级/公司事实/临床消息, 多为旧帖与泛荐股(PT仅记录不采信)。提示现价3.70高出买区上沿37%, 距不追价4.15低10.8%; R:R 0.47:1远<1.5, 不建仓。10/15增发$3.25后股本+16%, runway进2029。看11/2 CGA-IGC与11/4财报; 增发lock-up至约11/29。
688017	0.44	¥290 周+22.5%	买区¥178-208 🎰题材无边际	熊市地板¥98(深度买区130-163；净现金仅11.9/股，地板下无缓冲)	不追>¥300	观察名单0仓；跌进¥208以下再谈starter(1/3)；主分2/6
主锚自身PS band×前瞻营收；反向DCF；相对6324.T/来福EV/S 估值 PE 376.9x (TTM) · FPE FPE26 294x / FPE27 203x / FPE28 135x; PS_TTM 79.61x · PEG年 4.7 (FY27前瞻, 失效) 分位 PS p91 / PB p91 / PE p77 (5年) R:R口径 (374-290)/(290-98)=0.44:1；PT=自身PS中位53.7x×共识FY27E营收12.79亿；买区1.5-2.5:1；无卖方目标价（Base PT ¥374）题材档 PE TTM 376.9x >100x；PS_TTM 79.61x、EV/S 76.3x >50x 内部人 🟡 2026年零增减持(核查至10-23)。2025-06~09实控人左晶/左昱昱在¥119.99-159.10减持合计¥7.48亿(均价约¥136)；李谦2025-03~06在¥156.65-176.81减持。现价约2.1倍。事件财报 8/27→10/31✓ · 催化 2026Q3季报10-31(预约披露)；H股递表进展 X 仅2条10月新帖(ETF持仓清单)；无公司特有叙事解释周涨22.5%；高盛PT 285.10未核实不采信；涨因推断板块情绪。提示现价290高于买区上沿39.4%，距不追线300仅3.4%，本周+22.5%无公司催化；PS/PB均p91。10-31三季报前不追，需单季毛利率止跌并量化具身智能收入。毛利率52.5%到32.26%，仅客户19占营收7%。
TSLA	0.13	$372.22 周+4.9%	买区$250-300 🔁本周重锚 🎰题材无边际	熊市地板$150-175(深尾 $100; SOTP 硬资产 $66-86/股)	不追>$475	观察档(4腿合计2/8); 不在$372追, ≤$260才重回小仓门槛
主锚故事股: SOTP + 卖方PT band; 52w分位; PE/PEG N/A 估值 PE GAAP ~409x (NG ~216x) · FPE fwd FY26 NG $1.744 ~213x; FY27 $2.17 ~172x · PEG年 N/M 分位 52w(close)分位38.6%; 200DMA下3.6% R:R口径 (397.83-372.22)/(372.22-175)=25.61/197.22=~0.13:1; 买区中值$275 ~1.23:1, 下沿$250 ~1.97:1; PT=卖方均价(n=38), 中位$412.5（Base PT $397.83）重锚闸①②触发(Q3 8-K/10-Q; 距上次锚49天>42); 重审后三锚数值维持买区250-300/地板150-175/不追>475 题材档 GAAP PE ~409x, NG PE ~216x (>100x); 77-82%市值为期权定价内部人 ⚪ 窗口内无公开市场买入(含Musk)。仅CFO Taneja 09-05 卖2,605.75股@$360.13(RSU缴税, Form4 09-09); 此前5/15 @$450、6/9 @$402.20 同类卖出。10-17后零新增。Musk自购锚$371.90(2025-09-15)已满12个月。事件财报 10/21→1/27估 · 催化 12-03年会; Tesla-SpaceX合并特委会; 2027-01-27 Q4 X Q3 beat反应(NG EPS $0.48, FCF+$1.5B, FSD 1.74M)但空方称含一次性关税退款; SpaceX合并委员会获10-Q确认; Cybercab/NHTSA结果仍待补。提示现价$372.22高出买区上沿+24.1%, 距不追$475 +27.6%, 距地板远; R:R 0.13:1 不建底。Q3 beat含一次性IEEPA关税退款, 质量待验; capex>$20B; SpaceX合并为二元事件(条款未知); NHTSA结果待补, 欧盟FSD投票最早12月。
PLTR	-0.17	$196.75 周+5.8%	买区$90-105 🎰题材无边际	熊市地板$80	不追>$170	观察（现价不建仓）；仅在$90-105买区按starter(1/3)
主锚 EV/NTM-Rev band (2y) 主锚 + 反向DCF闸；第二法 EV/FCF 估值 PE ~162x (TTM GAAP, 参考) · FPE EV/NTM-Rev 43.93x; Fwd PE 122.1x(FY26 $1.61)/84.6x(FY27 $2.33); EV/FCF ~100.7x · PEG年 N/M (机械失效; EV/NTM-S PEG 0.52 参考) 分位 2y band 约57分位(09-26 口径 42.31x); 本轮未重估 R:R口径 (177-196.75)/(196.75-80) = -0.17:1; 共识均值PT $206.43 → 0.08:1; 中位$217.5 → 0.18:1。现价高于Base PT 11.2%。（Base PT $177）题材档 EV/NTM-Rev 43.93x; TTM PE ~162x, Fwd PE ~122x (>100x) 内部人 🟡 Director Moore 10-15 卖16,000股均价$197.99 (~$3.17M, 10b5-1, Form 4 filed 10-19); Taylor 10-08 卖18,000@$201.15; Stat 10-08 5,026@$199; Woersching 10-09 1,000@$205。窗口内0公开市场买入。事件财报 8/3→11/2✓ · 催化 11-02 Q3 FY26财报(盘后); 主权AI/NGC2/TITAN X 无新基本面/卖方原文; 官方X主权AI案例(McCarthy/Nemotron)、首尔活动; 荐股号'Don't buy PLTR'噪音; 情绪平稳偏中性。提示现价196.75高于不追线170达15.7%、略超止盈区185-200上沿，远高于买区90-105；R:R为负，不建仓。距11-02财报9天，事件闸生效勿追价。风险：毛利率回落、SBC反弹、Maven争议、Burry 2027 put；关注Moore持续10b5-1卖出与财报。

(source: dashboards/2026-10-24_decision-board.md)

决策板 · 买点×估值×内部人×财报日 · 76家（2026-10-24）

📊 周环比（vs 10-17 周更板 · 10-16 收盘 → 10-23 收盘）

⭐ 一眼结论

⭐ 黄金组合（买区内 + 近6月内部人开放市场买入 + 收益风险比>2.5 · 罕见正面确认）

🟢 买区（深度 + 买区内 · 34家 · 按 收益风险比↓ 排 · N/M=现价贴近/跌破地板）

🟡 公允偏上（23家 · 按 收益风险比↓ 排）

⛔ 不追区（11家 · 按 收益风险比↓ 排）

🎰 题材无边际（8家 · 收益风险比基于远期假设，可靠性低于盈利股 · 仅小仓投机）

🟢 买区（深度 + 买区内 · 34家 · 按收益风险比↓ 排 · N/M=现价贴近/跌破地板）

🟡 公允偏上（23家 · 按收益风险比↓ 排）

⛔ 不追区（11家 · 按收益风险比↓ 排）